Spring Blog • June 18, 2015

 

Net Upsets

We all know that upsets are a very big part of college football from week to week but I would like to share how important they also are from season to season. Many of my Close Wins/Close Losses article teams who were upset often one year tend to have better fortune the next year and the opposite holds true with teams that pulled multiple upsets. This year when reading Phil’s Forecasts on each team in my 2015 College Football Preview I reference those teams that have the most and suffered the most upsets.

In 2014 there were 5 teams that were +3 net upsets meaning, a teams upset wins minus a teams upset losses. Georgia Tech and Rutgers led the way with +4 upsets each while Air Force, FIU, Missouri and Ohio St each were +3. In the chart below you will see that 23 teams since 1997 (the last 16Y) have been +4 net upsets in a season and of those 16, or 70%, have had a worse record the following year while 19, or 83%, have had the same or worse record. A subset of those numbers shows that of those 23 teams, 20 were BCS/P-5, and 19, or 95%, have seen their record fall. Only the overachieving Bill Snyder of Kansas St broke the curve.

Record Record Record % of teams % of teams
Improved fell Same which record Total which record Fell/
Net Upsets next ssn next ssn next ssn Fell Fell/same Net Upsets Record Fell Same
+7 0 1 0 100% 100% +7 0-1 100% 100%
+6 1 2 0 67% 67% +6 or more 1-3 75% 75%
+5 0 8 0 100% 100% +5 or more 1-11 91% 91%
+4 4 16 3 70% 83% +4 or more 5-27-5 73% 87%
+3 25 66 5 69% 74% +3 or more 30-103-8 73% 79%
+2 83 103 11 52% 58% +2 or more 113-206-19 61% 66%
+1 net upset 279 424 40 57% 62% +1 or more 392-630-59 58% 64%
Even 198 249 53 50% 60%
Record Record Record % of teams % of teams
Improved fell Same which record Total which record Improved/
Net Upsets next ssn next ssn next ssn Improved Improved/same Net Upsets Record Improved Same
-1 net upset 174 165 39 47% 56% -1 or more 387-300-72 51% 60%
-2 126 84 22 54% 64% -2 or more 213-135-33 56% 66%
-3 63 36 7 59% 66% -3 or more 87-51-11 58% 66%
-4 20 13 4 54% 65% -4 or more 24-15-4 56% 65%
-5 4 2 0 67% 67% -5 4-2 67% 67%

Now as I always do let’s look at the flipside. There were 8 teams that finished 2014 with -3 or more net upsets. Oklahoma was the only to be -5 while Akron and Pittsburgh were both -4. Arkansas St, Georgia, Miami FL, Michigan and Stanford were all -3 net upsets on the year. By looking below you will see that the Sooners are only the 7th team since 1997 to finish at -5. The results don’t quite have the same percentage as the opposite side of the chart but 4 of 6 or 67% saw their record increase. Of the teams with -4 or more net upsets 24 of 43, or 56%, saw their record increase or stay the same. The numbers improve when looking at all the teams with -3 net upsets or more as 70 of 106 teams, or 66% improved their record or stayed the same.

Here are all 128 teams from 2014. The chart includes number of games as Fav, number of games as a Dog, and wins and losses in each category. The final number is net upsets which again the number of upsets your team pulls minus the number of times your team was upset.

  2014 2014 2014 2014 2014 2014 2014 2014 Fav-Wins
  Games Wins as Upset Games Upset Lost as Actual Actual Net
Team Favored Favorite Losses Underdog Wins Underdog Wins Losses Diff
Air Force 7 6 1 6 4 2 10 3 3
Akron 9 4 5 3 1 2 5 7 -4
Alabama 14 12 2 0 0 0 12 2 -2
Appalachian St 5 4 1 7 3 4 7 5 2
Arizona 9 8 1 5 2 3 10 4 1
Arizona St 9 8 1 4 2 2 10 3 1
Arkansas 6 5 1 7 2 5 7 6 1
Arkansas St 10 7 3 3 0 3 7 6 -3
Army 5 2 3 7 2 5 4 8 -1
Auburn 10 7 3 3 1 2 8 5 -2
Ball St 4 2 2 8 3 5 5 7 1
Baylor 12 10 2 1 1 0 11 2 -1
Boise St 12 11 1 2 1 1 12 2 0
Boston College 6 4 2 7 3 4 7 6 1
Bowling Green   8 5 3 6 3 3 8 6 0
Buffalo 5 4 1 6 1 5 5 6 0
BYU 9 7 2 4 1 3 8 5 -1
California 4 2 2 8 3 5 5 7 1
Central Michigan 6 5 1 7 2 5 7 6 1
Cincinnati 10 8 2 3 1 2 9 4 -1
Clemson 10 9 1 3 1 2 10 3 0
Colorado 3 2 1 9 0 9 2 10 -1
Colorado St 9 8 1 4 2 2 10 3 1
Connecticut 3 1 2 9 1 8 2 10 -1
Duke 9 7 2 4 2 2 9 4 0
East Carolina 10 7 3 3 1 2 8 5 -2
Eastern Michigan 1 1 0 11 1 10 2 10 1
FAU 5 1 4 7 2 5 3 9 -2
FIU 1 1 0 11 3 8 4 8 3
Florida 7 5 2 5 2 3 7 5 0
Florida St 13 13 0 1 0 1 13 1 0
Fresno St 7 5 2 7 1 6 6 8 -1
Georgia 13 10 3 0 0 0 10 3 -3
Georgia Southern 9 9 0 3 0 3 9 3 0
Georgia St 2 1 1 10 0 10 1 11 -1
Georgia Tech 7 6 1 7 5 2 11 3 4
Hawaii 3 3 0 10 1 9 4 9 1
Houston 9 6 3 4 2 2 8 5 -1
Idaho 3 1 2 8 0 8 1 10 -2
Illinois 4 3 1 9 3 6 6 7 2
Indiana 5 2 3 7 1 6 4 8 -2
Iowa 8 6 2 5 1 4 7 6 -1
Iowa St 4 1 3 8 1 7 2 10 -2
Kansas 2 2 0 10 1 9 3 9 1
Kansas St 7 7 0 6 2 4 9 4 2
Kent St 1 0 1 10 2 8 2 9 1
Kentucky 4 4 0 8 1 7 5 7 1
Louisiana 8 6 2 5 3 2 9 4 1
Louisiana Tech 9 7 2 5 2 3 9 5 0
Louisville 9 8 1 4 1 3 9 4 0
LSU 10 7 3 3 1 2 8 5 -2
Marshall 14 13 1 0 0 0 13 1 -1
Maryland 5 3 2 8 4 4 7 6 2
Massachusetts 3 3 0 9 0 9 3 9 0
Memphis 10 9 1 3 1 2 10 3 0
Miami, Fl 9 6 3 4 0 4 6 7 -3
Miami, Oh 3 2 1 9 0 9 2 10 -1
Michigan 8 5 3 4 0 4 5 7 -3
Michigan St 11 10 1 2 1 1 11 2 0
Middle Tennessee 5 4 1 7 2 5 6 6 1
Minnesota 7 6 1 6 2 4 8 5 1
Mississippi St 10 8 2 3 2 1 10 3 0
Missouri 7 6 1 7 4 3 11 3 3
Navy 10 7 3 3 1 2 8 5 -2
NC State 6 5 1 7 3 4 8 5 2
Nebraska 9 8 1 4 1 3 10 3 0
Nevada 7 5 2 6 2 4 7 6 0
New Mexico 3 2 1 9 2 7 4 8 1
New Mexico St 0 0 0 12 2 10 2 10 2
North Carolina 6 4 2 7 2 5 6 7 0
North Texas 5 3 2 7 1 6 4 8 -1
Northern Illinois 10 9 1 4 2 2 11 3 1
Northwestern 4 1 3 8 4 4 5 7 1
Notre Dame 8 6 2 5 2 3 8 5 0
Ohio 4 4 0 8 2 6 6 6 2
Ohio St 11 10 1 4 4 0 14 1 3
Oklahoma 13 8 5 0 0 0 8 5 -5
Oklahoma St 5 5 0 8 2 6 7 6 2
Old Dominion 4 3 1 8 3 5 6 6 2
Ole Miss 9 6 3 4 3 1 9 4 0
Oregon 15 13 2 0 0 0 13 2 -2
Oregon St 6 4 2 6 1 5 5 7 -1
Penn St 8 5 3 5 2 3 7 6 -1
Pittsburgh 10 5 5 3 1 2 6 7 -4
Purdue 4 2 2 8 1 7 3 9 -1
Rice 9 8 1 4 0 4 9 4 -1
Rutgers 4 4 0 9 4 5 8 5 4
San Diego St 8 7 1 5 0 5 7 6 -1
San Jose St 4 3 1 8 0 8 3 9 -1
SMU 0 0 0 12 1 11 1 11 1
South Alabama 7 6 1 6 0 6 6 7 -1
South Carolina 8 4 4 5 3 2 7 6 -1
Southern Miss 2 2 0 10 1 9 3 9 1
Stanford 11 7 4 2 1 1 8 5 -3
Syracuse 5 3 2 7 0 7 3 9 -2
TCU 11 11 0 2 1 1 12 1 1
Temple 4 4 0 8 2 6 6 6 2
Tennessee 8 6 2 5 1 4 7 6 -1
Texas 5 5 0 8 1 7 6 7 1
Texas A&M 7 5 2 6 3 3 8 5 1
Texas St 5 4 1 7 3 4 7 5 2
Texas Tech 3 3 0 9 1 8 4 8 1
Toledo 9 9 0 4 0 4 9 4 0
Troy 4 2 2 8 1 7 3 9 -1
Tulane 2 2 0 10 1 9 3 9 1
Tulsa 3 2 1 9 0 9 2 10 -1
UAB 6 4 2 6 2 4 6 6 0
UCF 10 7 3 3 2 1 9 4 -1
UCLA 12 10 2 1 0 1 10 3 -2
ULM 5 4 1 7 0 7 4 8 -1
UNLV 2 1 1 11 1 10 2 11 0
USC 10 8 2 3 1 2 9 4 -1
USF 4 4 0 8 0 8 4 8 0
Utah 8 6 2 5 3 2 9 4 1
Utah St 9 9 0 5 1 4 10 4 1
UTEP 5 5 0 8 2 6 7 6 2
UTSA 6 3 3 6 1 5 4 8 -2
Vanderbilt 4 3 1 8 0 8 3 9 -1
Virginia 5 3 2 7 2 5 5 7 0
Virginia Tech 7 3 4 6 4 2 7 6 0
Wake Forest 1 1 0 11 2 9 3 9 2
Washington 8 7 1 6 1 5 8 6 0
Washington St 4 1 3 8 2 6 3 9 -1
West Virginia 8 5 3 5 2 3 7 6 -1
Western Michigan 7 5 2 6 3 3 8 5 1
Wisconsin 12 10 2 2 1 1 11 3 -1
WKU 7 5 2 6 3 3 8 5 1
Wyoming 2 2 0 10 2 8 4 8 2


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