| Spring Blog • June 18, 2015 |
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Net Upsets
We all know that upsets are a very big part of college football from week to week but I would like to share how important they also are from season to season. Many of my Close Wins/Close Losses article teams who were upset often one year tend to have better fortune the next year and the opposite holds true with teams that pulled multiple upsets. This year when reading Phil’s Forecasts on each team in my 2015 College Football Preview I reference those teams that have the most and suffered the most upsets.
In 2014 there were 5 teams that were +3 net upsets meaning, a teams upset wins minus a teams upset losses. Georgia Tech and Rutgers led the way with +4 upsets each while Air Force, FIU, Missouri and Ohio St each were +3. In the chart below you will see that 23 teams since 1997 (the last 16Y) have been +4 net upsets in a season and of those 16, or 70%, have had a worse record the following year while 19, or 83%, have had the same or worse record. A subset of those numbers shows that of those 23 teams, 20 were BCS/P-5, and 19, or 95%, have seen their record fall. Only the overachieving Bill Snyder of Kansas St broke the curve.
| Record | Record | Record | % of teams | % of teams | |||||
| Improved | fell | Same | which record | Total | which record | Fell/ | |||
| Net Upsets | next ssn | next ssn | next ssn | Fell | Fell/same | Net Upsets | Record | Fell | Same |
| +7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 100% | +7 | 0-1 | 100% | 100% |
| +6 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 67% | 67% | +6 or more | 1-3 | 75% | 75% |
| +5 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 100% | 100% | +5 or more | 1-11 | 91% | 91% |
| +4 | 4 | 16 | 3 | 70% | 83% | +4 or more | 5-27-5 | 73% | 87% |
| +3 | 25 | 66 | 5 | 69% | 74% | +3 or more | 30-103-8 | 73% | 79% |
| +2 | 83 | 103 | 11 | 52% | 58% | +2 or more | 113-206-19 | 61% | 66% |
| +1 net upset | 279 | 424 | 40 | 57% | 62% | +1 or more | 392-630-59 | 58% | 64% |
| Even | 198 | 249 | 53 | 50% | 60% | ||||
| Record | Record | Record | % of teams | % of teams | |||||
| Improved | fell | Same | which record | Total | which record | Improved/ | |||
| Net Upsets | next ssn | next ssn | next ssn | Improved | Improved/same | Net Upsets | Record | Improved | Same |
| -1 net upset | 174 | 165 | 39 | 47% | 56% | -1 or more | 387-300-72 | 51% | 60% |
| -2 | 126 | 84 | 22 | 54% | 64% | -2 or more | 213-135-33 | 56% | 66% |
| -3 | 63 | 36 | 7 | 59% | 66% | -3 or more | 87-51-11 | 58% | 66% |
| -4 | 20 | 13 | 4 | 54% | 65% | -4 or more | 24-15-4 | 56% | 65% |
| -5 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 67% | 67% | -5 | 4-2 | 67% | 67% |
Now as I always do let’s look at the flipside. There were 8 teams that finished 2014 with -3 or more net upsets. Oklahoma was the only to be -5 while Akron and Pittsburgh were both -4. Arkansas St, Georgia, Miami FL, Michigan and Stanford were all -3 net upsets on the year. By looking below you will see that the Sooners are only the 7th team since 1997 to finish at -5. The results don’t quite have the same percentage as the opposite side of the chart but 4 of 6 or 67% saw their record increase. Of the teams with -4 or more net upsets 24 of 43, or 56%, saw their record increase or stay the same. The numbers improve when looking at all the teams with -3 net upsets or more as 70 of 106 teams, or 66% improved their record or stayed the same.
Here are all 128 teams from 2014. The chart includes number of games as Fav, number of games as a Dog, and wins and losses in each category. The final number is net upsets which again the number of upsets your team pulls minus the number of times your team was upset.
| 2014 | 2014 | 2014 | 2014 | 2014 | 2014 | 2014 | 2014 | Fav-Wins | |
| Games | Wins as | Upset | Games | Upset | Lost as | Actual | Actual | Net | |
| Team | Favored | Favorite | Losses | Underdog | Wins | Underdog | Wins | Losses | Diff |
| Air Force | 7 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 3 | 3 |
| Akron | 9 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 7 | -4 |
| Alabama | 14 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 2 | -2 |
| Appalachian St | 5 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 2 |
| Arizona | 9 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 4 | 1 |
| Arizona St | 9 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 3 | 1 |
| Arkansas | 6 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 1 |
| Arkansas St | 10 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 6 | -3 |
| Army | 5 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 8 | -1 |
| Auburn | 10 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 5 | -2 |
| Ball St | 4 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 1 |
| Baylor | 12 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 2 | -1 |
| Boise St | 12 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 2 | 0 |
| Boston College | 6 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 1 |
| Bowling Green | 8 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 6 | 0 |
| Buffalo | 5 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 0 |
| BYU | 9 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 5 | -1 |
| California | 4 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 1 |
| Central Michigan | 6 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 1 |
| Cincinnati | 10 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 4 | -1 |
| Clemson | 10 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 3 | 0 |
| Colorado | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 10 | -1 |
| Colorado St | 9 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 3 | 1 |
| Connecticut | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 10 | -1 |
| Duke | 9 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 4 | 0 |
| East Carolina | 10 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 5 | -2 |
| Eastern Michigan | 1 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 1 | 10 | 2 | 10 | 1 |
| FAU | 5 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 9 | -2 |
| FIU | 1 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 3 | 8 | 4 | 8 | 3 |
| Florida | 7 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 0 |
| Florida St | 13 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 1 | 0 |
| Fresno St | 7 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 8 | -1 |
| Georgia | 13 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 3 | -3 |
| Georgia Southern | 9 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 3 | 0 |
| Georgia St | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 10 | 1 | 11 | -1 |
| Georgia Tech | 7 | 6 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 11 | 3 | 4 |
| Hawaii | 3 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 9 | 1 |
| Houston | 9 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 5 | -1 |
| Idaho | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 10 | -2 |
| Illinois | 4 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 2 |
| Indiana | 5 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 8 | -2 |
| Iowa | 8 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 6 | -1 |
| Iowa St | 4 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 10 | -2 |
| Kansas | 2 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 1 | 9 | 3 | 9 | 1 |
| Kansas St | 7 | 7 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 4 | 2 |
| Kent St | 1 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 9 | 1 |
| Kentucky | 4 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 1 |
| Louisiana | 8 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 4 | 1 |
| Louisiana Tech | 9 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 5 | 0 |
| Louisville | 9 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 4 | 0 |
| LSU | 10 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 5 | -2 |
| Marshall | 14 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 1 | -1 |
| Maryland | 5 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 2 |
| Massachusetts | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 9 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Memphis | 10 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 3 | 0 |
| Miami, Fl | 9 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 7 | -3 |
| Miami, Oh | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 10 | -1 |
| Michigan | 8 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 7 | -3 |
| Michigan St | 11 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 2 | 0 |
| Middle Tennessee | 5 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 1 |
| Minnesota | 7 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 5 | 1 |
| Mississippi St | 10 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 3 | 0 |
| Missouri | 7 | 6 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 3 | 3 |
| Navy | 10 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 5 | -2 |
| NC State | 6 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 5 | 2 |
| Nebraska | 9 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 3 | 0 |
| Nevada | 7 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 0 |
| New Mexico | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 8 | 1 |
| New Mexico St | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 2 | 10 | 2 | 10 | 2 |
| North Carolina | 6 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 0 |
| North Texas | 5 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 8 | -1 |
| Northern Illinois | 10 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 3 | 1 |
| Northwestern | 4 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 1 |
| Notre Dame | 8 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 5 | 0 |
| Ohio | 4 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 2 |
| Ohio St | 11 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 14 | 1 | 3 |
| Oklahoma | 13 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 5 | -5 |
| Oklahoma St | 5 | 5 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 2 |
| Old Dominion | 4 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 2 |
| Ole Miss | 9 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 0 |
| Oregon | 15 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 2 | -2 |
| Oregon St | 6 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 7 | -1 |
| Penn St | 8 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 6 | -1 |
| Pittsburgh | 10 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 7 | -4 |
| Purdue | 4 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 9 | -1 |
| Rice | 9 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 4 | -1 |
| Rutgers | 4 | 4 | 0 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 5 | 4 |
| San Diego St | 8 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 6 | -1 |
| San Jose St | 4 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 9 | -1 |
| SMU | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 1 | 11 | 1 | 11 | 1 |
| South Alabama | 7 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 7 | -1 |
| South Carolina | 8 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 6 | -1 |
| Southern Miss | 2 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 1 | 9 | 3 | 9 | 1 |
| Stanford | 11 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 5 | -3 |
| Syracuse | 5 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 9 | -2 |
| TCU | 11 | 11 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 1 | 1 |
| Temple | 4 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 2 |
| Tennessee | 8 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 6 | -1 |
| Texas | 5 | 5 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 1 |
| Texas A&M | 7 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 5 | 1 |
| Texas St | 5 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 2 |
| Texas Tech | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 8 | 1 |
| Toledo | 9 | 9 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 4 | 0 |
| Troy | 4 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 9 | -1 |
| Tulane | 2 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 1 | 9 | 3 | 9 | 1 |
| Tulsa | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 10 | -1 |
| UAB | 6 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 0 |
| UCF | 10 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 4 | -1 |
| UCLA | 12 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 3 | -2 |
| ULM | 5 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 8 | -1 |
| UNLV | 2 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 1 | 10 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| USC | 10 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 4 | -1 |
| USF | 4 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 8 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| Utah | 8 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 4 | 1 |
| Utah St | 9 | 9 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 4 | 1 |
| UTEP | 5 | 5 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 2 |
| UTSA | 6 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 8 | -2 |
| Vanderbilt | 4 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 9 | -1 |
| Virginia | 5 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 0 |
| Virginia Tech | 7 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 0 |
| Wake Forest | 1 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 2 | 9 | 3 | 9 | 2 |
| Washington | 8 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 0 |
| Washington St | 4 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 9 | -1 |
| West Virginia | 8 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 6 | -1 |
| Western Michigan | 7 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 5 | 1 |
| Wisconsin | 12 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 3 | -1 |
| WKU | 7 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 5 | 1 |
| Wyoming | 2 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 2 | 8 | 4 | 8 | 2 |
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