Which Conference Played The Toughest Schedule – Part 2

Today continues my series of taking a look at which conference is the toughest. Last week, I gave you a couple of components that go into my toughest conference rankings including non-conference records for each conference, their record vs BCS conferences and also their overall record when you take out the conference’s wins vs FCS schools (but naturally including the losses since they should be considered “poor losses”).

Today’s blog first gives you yet another look at my ranking of the toughest conferences by analyzing how many teams they had finishing in the final AP Top 10 and Top 25 this past year as well as a sneak peek at how many players from each conference that we will see get drafted in the upcoming NFL draft.

# of Teams in the Final 2014 AP Top 10/25

Another component in my toughest conference rankings is the number of draft picks they send to the NFL. Naturally the stronger BCS conferences get more players drafted each year but I do think it is a good tool to use when you are distinguishing between two conferences that are really close when it comes to non-conference and bowl records.

More players drafted equals better overall talent in the conference and that sometimes equals a better quality of play, so I have projected the total number of players for each conference that will get drafted this upcoming May. These numbers can change a great deal but last year I had great success projecting the draft and I do think it’s a good starting point. This year I also changed formats by ranking the conferences on projected players/by the number of teams in a conference.

Projected Number of 2015 Draft Picks
For Each Conference

Wow! While the SEC still is projected to have the most overall draft picks the Pac-12 is #1 in projected players/team. The 3 projected draft choices for the Independents are all from Notre Dame and I included them as a reference.

PHIL STEELE’S  TOUGHEST CONFERENCE

I started this rating system in 2003. I compared non-conference schedules, records versus BCS teams (now Power-5) power ratings, bowl teams, bowl wins, top 10 and top 25 teams played as well as the number of players drafted. As you will see by the records above and below the SEC’s dominance was close to coming to an end but they still finished as the #1 TOUGHEST CONFERENCE FOR THE 10^TH STRAIGHT SEASON!

          
  While my grading system has different weights for each category here are my final rankings with how each conference ranked in each category.

In 2003, I put together all the factors (non-conf record, record vs BCS conf, average power ratings and bowl records) and rated the conferences with the SEC narrowly earning the title of 2003's Toughest Conference with the Big Ten and Big 12 finishing very close behind.

For 2004, I eliminated wins vs FCS schools but did include losses vs them. USC had tremendous power rating numbers which are also a part of my equation. During the season the Big 12 had the best non-conf record and a slight lead but USC's demolition of Oklahoma in the Title game had me awarding the Pac-10 its first-ever Toughest Conference Title. The #2 conference was the Big 12, #3 SEC, #4 ACC and the Big Ten was #5.

In '05, the best non-conf record went to the Big 12 at 23-5 (82%), followed by the Big Ten at 26-6 (81%). Against AQ schools the Big Ten was #1 (6-4), with the Pac-10 & Big 12 each at 4-3 and the ACC at 9-7. The MW (5-7) actually had a better record in this category than the Big East (4-9). Only 3 leagues had winning records in bowls (Big 12 5-3, Pac-10 3-2, ACC 5-3). Here is how I ranked the '05 conf's: #1 SEC, #2 ACC, #3 Big Ten, #4 Big 12, #5 Pac-10 and #6 Big East.

In 2006, it appeared late in the year that the Big Ten was the toughest league with Ohio St and Michigan #1 and #2 and Wisconsin not far behind. The Big Ten got blown up in the bowls (2-5) with #1 Ohio St, being dominated by Florida. That dropped the Big Ten to #3.The SEC was the CLEAR #1 with the best record during the regular season vs FBS teams at 32-8 (80%). The lowest mark among the BCS conferences was the ACC at 20-17 (54.1%). Both the MAC and CUSA posted more wins (5) in non-conf BCS games than the Big 12 or ACC!! The SEC led with 41 players drafted followed by the Big Ten (32), then the ACC (31). The Big East only had 16, which was actually 1 behind the WAC! The SEC and Big Ten each had THREE Top 10 teams (Big East 2). The SEC was 6-3 in bowls with 4 wins over ranked teams. The Big East was 5-0 but had only ONE win over a ranked foe. All of the factors above were tossed into my computer and the result was #1 SEC, #2 Big East, #3 Big Ten, #4 Pac-10, #5 ACC, #6 Big 12.

In 2007, it was another finish at the wire with the Big 12 making a huge rebound to #2. The best non-conf record (reg season) vs FBS teams was the Big Ten at 29-7 (80.6%) followed by the Big 12 at 29-11 (72.5%) and then the MW at 70.7%. The MW posted more wins (7) in non-conf BCS games than the Big Ten, Pac-10 or Big 12!! The SEC led again with 35 players drafted, followed by the Pac-10 (34) and the ACC (33). The Big 12 led with FOUR Top 10 teams (SEC 2). The MW (4-1) had the best bowl record! The SEC was 7-2 with 4 wins over ranked teams in bowls, which tied them with the Big 12 for the lead (MW 0). All of the factors above were tossed into my computer and the result was a nail-biting close-win for the SEC. The Big 12 was a hair behind at #2.

In the 2008 regular season there was little doubt that the top 2 conf's were the SEC and the Big 12. The top 4 ranked teams heading into the bowls were all from those 2 conf's. They were the top two in terms of non-conf record vs FBS foes (Big 12 28-10, 73.7%, SEC 28-11, 71.8%). The SHOCKING winner of best record in non-conf games vs BCS schools was the MW at 9-4 (6-1 vs Pac-10) with the ACC at 13-8 (61.9%), the only other conf topping .500 in that category. The Pac-10 was actually 12-17 in non-conf FBS games (8th best). The bowls saved the Pac-10 as they went a perfect 5-0 (4 wins vs rank bowl foes) and finished with 2 Top 10 teams. The SEC went 6-2 in bowls (Big 12 4-3) and won the title game. Five conferences had TWO Top 10 teams at the end but one of them was the MW while the Big East and ACC had NONE. The top 3 conf's in terms of players that were drafted were the SEC with 37, the ACC with 33 and the Pac-10 32. The top 4 conf's of '08 were #1 SEC, #2 Big 12, #3 Pac-10 and for the first time the MW cracked the top 4.

In '09 there was little doubt that once again the SEC was the king but at least the Big Ten made a comeback after their #6 finish in '08. The SEC had the best record in non-conf games vs FBS foes at 36-10 (78%) with the Big East #2 at 26-10 (72%) and the Big Ten #3 at 27-15 (64%). In games vs AQ conf's the SEC was tops at 15-8 (65.2%) and they were the only league above 50%. The MW was #2 at 7-9 (44%). The SEC led with 10 bowl teams (6-4). The Big 12 was 4-4 and the Big Ten was 4-3. The Big Ten's 4 bowl wins were ALL vs ranked teams (SEC 3, Big 12 2, Big East 0). The SEC once again led in draft picks with 49 (Big Ten 34, ACC 31). The Big Ten actually finished with the most AP Top 10 teams (3) while the SEC had two. The top 4 conferences's of '09 were #1 SEC, #2 Big Ten, #3 Big 12 and #4 Big East.

In 2010, the SEC went 36-11 (76.9%) in non-conf gms and went 15-10 (60%) vs other AQ conf's (no other conf above 50%). Their 10 bowl tms were the most as were their 38 draft picks. The Pac-10 had 31 draft picks and two Top 10 tms and might have been #2 but only had 4 bowl teams overall. The Big Ten had 8 bowl tms and despite just 29 players drafted finished a distant #2 to the SEC with a very slight edge over conferences #3, 4 and 5. The Big 12 had just 1 win over a ranked tm in the bowls and 1 Top 10 tm but actually were #2 with 5 top 25 tms. The top 4 conf's of '10 were #1 SEC, #2 Big Ten, #3 Big 12 and #4 Pac-10 (now the Pac 12).

In 2011, the SEC was far and away the best again with 4 Top Ten teams at the end of the year, the most NFL draft picks with 42, the best record (9-3) in non conf BCS games, 3 wins over ranked bowl teams and a 6-3 record in bowls that included a loss to an SEC school (LSU to Bama in Title game). The top 4 conf's of '11 were #1 SEC, #2 Big 12, #3 Big Ten and #4 Pac-12.

In 2012, the Big 12 for the 2nd year in a row had the best record in overall non-conference action with a 26-4 (87%) mark which just edged out the SEC 48-8 (86%). The conference was also 5-1 against BCS conferences. However, in the end, the SEC had a better bowl record at 6-3. Set a record with an amazing 5 teams finishing in the AP Top 10 and then broke the NFL draft record with 70 players drafted as they claimed a 8th straight title. The top 4 conf's of '12 were #1 SEC, #2 Pac-12, #3 Big 12 and #4 Big Ten.

In 2013, the The SEC had the best non-conf record (47-9, 83.9%) while the P-12 had the best win% versus P5 teams (6-3, 67%). The SEC's dominated the rest of the way finishing with the most bowl wins, most wins vs AP top 10 teams as well as top 25's and also had the most players drafter with 49 . The top 4 conf's of '12 were #1 SEC, #2 Pac-12, #3 ACC and #4 Big Ten.

Here is my official ranking and I’m extremely interested if the SEC can take another title in 2015 or if the Pac-12 or perhaps another conference can break the streak.