Phil Steele Blog • January 26, 2016

 

Def with the biggest Increase/ Decrease in Sack Total.

Yesterday I did the rushing defenses that made the biggest improvement in the country last year. That is one stat that my computer does a very solid job forecasting in advance. Today I am skipping ahead to defenses with the biggest increase/decrease in sack total.

This blog was originally going to just report the teams that had the biggest gain/drops in defensive sacks. What it has turned out to be is some extra home work for me AND a neat answer to a question I have been asked by numerous coaches.

I originally was just looking to find out what the biggest differences in sacks were from one year to the next. This past year the champ was Kent St which went from 9 sacks in 2014 all the way up to 32 in 2015. Interestingly the next team up was ALABAMA. Alabama went from 31 sacks in 2014 up to 53 last year for an increase of 22. Other big gainers were Pitt at +18 and Southern Miss at +18. It then hit me that these teams all had improved records with Southern Miss having a huge increase in their win total, going from 3-9 to 9-5. Now for many of my charts and articles for the magazine I have a simple paste of records which shows me which teams improved their records over the past year and which ones got weaker. It puts the teams with the positive improved record in a green box and the weaker records in a red box.

I decided to take this formula and paste it next to the sacks by column, which was in a different spreadsheet. The results made my eyes light up. Almost all the teams at the top of the sack increase chart had a GREEN BOX (i.e. an improved record last year). Then I looked at the bottom and almost all the teams at the bottom which had negative sack totals from the previous year, had RED boxes next to their totals, meaning they had a decrease in record as well.

I will give you the exact numbers now. Teams that increased their sack total by 8 or more (or roughly 2/3 of a sack per game) had a better record 21 times and had a weaker record just THREE times (Florida St, Kansas St, Old Dominion). Twice they had the same record. That means teams that had an increase in sacks of 8 or more had the same or better record almost 90% of the time!

Now lets take a look at the bottom of the chart. Lets take a look at the teams whose sack totals dropped by 7 or more from 2014. There were 32 teams that fit into this category with the teams with the biggest drops being Utah St and Rice at -23 sacks. Rutgers, UCF, Virginia Tech and Cincinnati all had drops of 20 or more in sacks and only Virginia Tech did not decrease their record as they won their last 4 to finish 7-6, an identical record to last year. Of the 32 teams in this category 5 teams had the same record as 2014. Only 5 teams managed to better their record in Washington, Louisiana Tech, UNLV, Stanford and Florida International. TWENTY THREE teams had their records drop with UCF the prize winner going from 9-4 to 0-12. That means 85% of the teams that had their sacks drop by 7 or more had a WEAKER or same record.

My homework is to uncover the best way to determine how a teams sacks will drop prior to the upcoming year and turn it into an article in the magazine. Also I need to go back and look at the last 5 to 10 years to make sure it is a strong trend over time.

In my conversations with the coaches every year, there is usually little time for small talk but a question I have heard numerous times is "Are there any key indicators that can keep improvement in a team." Keep in mind the Cleveland Browns just hired a baseball analytics guy as their General Manager. After I do the 5 to 10 years research I now have something that works 85 to 90% of the time.

Here is the most improved sack totals for 2015 and the red and green colors in the DIFF column signify whether a team improved their record GREEN or the record got weaker RED or the record stayed the same WHITE.

  Sacks By
     
Team
2015 2014 Dif Rank
Kent St 32 9 23 1
Alabama 53 31 22 2
Pittsburgh 37 19 18 3
S Mississippi 32 14 18 3
Penn St 46 31 15 5
Florida St 32 17 15 5
LSU 34 19 15 5
Iowa St 30 15 15 5
South Florida 34 20 14 9
Northwestern 31 17 14 9
Navy 22 8 14 9
BYU 40 27 13 12
Miami (OH) 30 17 13 12
California 28 16 12 14
Kansas St 38 26 12 14
Florida ATL 35 23 12 14
Troy St 29 17 12 14
San  Diego St 37 26 11 18
Florida 40 30 10 19
New Mexico St 15 5 10 19
W Virginia 29 20 9 21
Houston 36 27 9 21
Oklahoma 40 32 8 23
Connecticut 21 13 8 23
Old Dominion 26 18 8 23
Appalachian St 36 28 8 23
Vanderbilt 26 18 8 23
Kansas 26 19 7 28
Oklahoma St 40 33 7 28
Indiana 30 23 7 28
Arizona St 46 39 7 28
Akron 33 26 7 28
E Michigan 18 12 6 33
S Carolina 20 14 6 33
Temple 33 27 6 33
New Mexico 30 24 6 33
Georgia St 18 12 6 33
USC 38 33 5 38
Colorado St 24 19 5 38
Colorado 27 22 5 38
Army 15 10 5 38
San Jose St 17 12 5 38
E Carolina 25 21 4 43
Washington St 33 29 4 43
Clemson 48 45 3 45
Tulane 25 22 3 45
Michigan 32 29 3 45
Maryland 35 32 3 45
Iowa 30 27 3 45
Bowling Green   30 28 2 50
N Carolina St 32 30 2 50
Hawaii 25 24 1 52
Ball St 17 16 1 52
UTSA 22 21 1 52
Purdue 21 20 1 52
Oregon 38 37 1 52
Air Force 37 36 1 52
N Carolina 23 22 1 52
Mississippi 29 28 1 52
Boston College 34 33 1 52
Umass 15 15 0 61
Westen Kentucky 26 26 0 61
Miami (Fla) 26 27 -1 63
UCLA 28 29 -1 63
Ohio Univ 23 24 -1 63
SMU 16 17 -1 63
Tulsa 21 22 -1 63
Notre Dame 25 26 -1 63
Fresno St 28 30 -2 69
Auburn 19 21 -2 69
Texas A&M 34 36 -2 69
Georgia Southern 22 24 -2 69
Middle Tenn St 23 25 -2 69
Texas 37 40 -3 74
Louisville 38 41 -3 74
Buffalo 22 25 -3 74
Toledo 26 29 -3 74
Syracuse 23 27 -4 78
Idaho 13 17 -4 78
Memphis 26 30 -4 78
Wyoming 10 14 -4 78
Nevada 25 29 -4 78
Arkansas 20 24 -4 78
UTEP 22 26 -4 78
Illinois 19 23 -4 78
Michigan St 37 42 -5 86
N Illinois 27 32 -5 86
Minnesota 22 27 -5 86
Tennessee 30 35 -5 86
Nebraska 24 29 -5 86
TexasTech 19 25 -6 91
C Michigan 14 20 -6 91
Georgia Tech 14 20 -6 91
Arkansas St 31 37 -6 91
Baylor 30 37 -7 95
Virginia 27 34 -7 95
Mississippi St 30 37 -7 95
Ohio St 38 45 -7 95
Georgia 21 28 -7 95
TCU 32 40 -8 100
Marshall 30 38 -8 100
Wake Forest 20 28 -8 100
Florida Intl 22 31 -9 103
Wisconsin 28 37 -9 103
UL-Lafayette 22 32 -10 105
UL Monroe 26 36 -10 105
Kentucky 17 27 -10 105
Arizona 27 38 -11 108
W Michigan 18 29 -11 108
Oregon St 17 29 -12 110
Stanford 34 46 -12 110
Duke 17 29 -12 110
North Texas 20 33 -13 113
Texas St 15 28 -13 113
Louisiana Tech 24 38 -14 115
Boise St 33 47 -14 115
UNLV 9 23 -14 115
South Alabama 11 27 -16 118
Missouri 28 44 -16 118
Washington 34 52 -18 120
Utah 37 55 -18 120
Rutgers 14 33 -19 122
UCF 16 36 -20 123
Virginia Tech 26 48 -22 124
Cincinnati 13 35 -22 124
Rice 16 39 -23 126
Utah St 27 50 -23 126