Phil Steele Blog • March 15, 2016

 

Who played the toughest schedule in 2015?

One of the most popular articles in my magazine each year is the “Toughest Schedule” which last year was on page 26 and 27 in the 2015 Phil Steele College Football Preview. Many fans are accustomed to seeing a teams preseason schedule strength determined by this years upcoming opponents record from the previous year. However, I base a teams preseason strength of schedule on my 9 sets of Power Ratings making them current and not basing them on last seasons record.

So lets take a look at Texas St, and Colorado. Both these teams are very close in the Net Record of Foes Column below. Net wins takes out the wins/losses that Texas St or Colorado had versus their scheduled opponents this year. For example Texas St was 3-9 in 2015 so you would take 9-3 off the Total Record of Foes and end up with 73-66.  Using the NCAA Win %, Texas St (NCAA #63) would have the tougher schedule over Colorado (NCAA #78). However using my 9 sets of Power Rankings clearly Colorado would have faced the tougher schedule. Colorado (my #44) faced 8 teams with a winning record and 9 went to a bowl game. Also Colorado had 9 Power 5 Conf opponents. Of those 9 Power 5 Conf teams Colorado faced 2 teams ranked in the final AP Top 25 Poll, Stanford (#3) and Utah (#17). Texas St (my #103) on the other hand faced 6 teams with a winning record and 6 going to a bowl game. Texas St faced only 1 Power 5 Conf team in Florida St (AP #14). Here are both teams schedules, which would you rather face Stanford, Utah and Oregon or Georgia Southern, Arkansas St and Georgia St?

Texas St Record Colorado Record
Houston 13-1 Stanford 12-2
Florida St 10-3 Utah 10-3
Southern Miss 9-5 Oregon 9-4
Georgia Southern 9-4 Washington St 9-4
Arkansas St 9-4 UCLA 8-5
Prairie View A&M 8-2 USC 8-6
Georgia St 6-7 Colorado St 7-6
South Alabama 5-7 Arizona 7-6
UL Lafayette 4-8 Arizona St 6-7
Idaho 4-8 Hawaii 3-10
New Mexico St 3-9 UMass 3-9
ULM 2-11 Nicholls St 3-8
  Oregon St 2-10
Total Record of Foes 82-69 Total Record of Foes 87-80
Foes Record vs Texas St 9-3 Foes Record vs Colorado 9-4
Net Record of Foes 73-66 Net Record of Foes 78-76
Rank by NCAA % #64 Rank by NCAA % #78
Phil Steele #103 Phil Steele #44

Now lets take a look at the complete list below. I have my toughest schedule rank (Green) along with that teams Foe Wins/Losses, Win %, NCAA Rank % (Red), Opponents faced with winning record, Opponents in Bowl, and how many ranked teams faced. Surprisingly, Alabama faced my #4 toughest schedule this year and they still ended up winning the National Championship while Clemson faced my #57. Also at the bottom of this list you can see that 5 of the last 6 teams that faced my weakest schedules made it to a bowl game. Houston 13-1 on the season also benefited from a weak schedule (my #112) and ended up #8 in the final AP rankings.

Here is my complete list of who played the toughest schedule in 2015.
Phil's   WINS LOSS WIN% Rank Win Rec Opp Rank
Rank TEAM FOE FOE FOE By % Tms W/ In Bowl Tms
1 Maryland 101 47 68.2% 3 10 11 5
2 Iowa St 90 53 62.9% 8 9 10 5
3 USC 88 55 61.5% 13 9 10 4
4 Alabama 99 42 70.2% 1 11 11 3
5 California 91 52 63.6% 6 9 9 3
6 Texas 83 59 58.5% 28 8 9 5
7 Auburn 99 47 67.8% 4 9 10 3
8 Minnesota 90 52 63.4% 7 8 9 6
9 Arkansas 95 44 68.3% 2 10 9 3
10 Oregon St 86 58 59.7% 18 10 10 4
11 Kansas 80 60 57.1% 36 8 9 4
12 LSU 83 50 62.4% 11 8 8 4
13 Georgia Tech 94 52 64.4% 5 10 9 4
14 Purdue 89 55 61.8% 12 7 10 4
15 Virginia 85 58 59.4% 22 10 10 2
16 Washington 82 61 57.3% 35 8 10 3
17 Stanford 81 62 56.6% 37 9 9 3
18 Texas Tech 82 60 57.7% 32 7 8 4
19 Illinois 86 58 59.7% 18 8 10 5
20 Oklahoma 81 60 57.4% 34 7 9 3
21 Vanderbilt 84 59 58.7% 26 8 8 4
22 Mississippi St 88 53 62.4% 9 8 8 3
23 Florida 86 63 57.7% 33 6 6 4
24 UCLA 77 66 53.8% 54 7 8 2
25 Texas A&M 82 58 58.6% 27 8 8 3
26 Arizona St 84 60 58.3% 29 10 10 2
27 Pittsburgh 83 58 58.9% 25 8 8 3
28 Mississippi 88 53 62.4% 9 9 8 3
29 Notre Dame 81 62 56.6% 37 6 6 4
30 Utah 75 67 52.8% 62 7 9 2
31 Oregon 86 58 59.7% 18 8 9 3
32 Miami, Fl 86 56 60.6% 14 8 8 3
33 South Carolina 85 59 59.0% 24 8 8 4
34 Michigan St 80 62 56.3% 42 7 9 3
35 Michigan 82 59 58.2% 30 6 8 4
36 Northwestern 85 56 60.3% 16 7 9 4
37 Nebraska 85 58 59.4% 22 7 8 4
38 Penn St 84 57 59.6% 21 6 7 5
39 West Virginia 76 61 55.5% 46 7 7 4
40 SMU 86 56 60.6% 14 8 9 5
41 Wake Forest 78 64 54.9% 49 7 8 4
42 Tennessee 84 56 60.0% 17 7 6 3
43 Arizona 77 65 54.2% 53 8 8 2
44 Colorado 78 76 50.6% 78 8 9 3
45 Washington St 75 66 53.2% 59 7 8 2
46 Kansas St 75 63 54.3% 52 7 7 4
47 Missouri 80 62 56.3% 42 7 8 1
48 Indiana 78 61 56.1% 44 6 6 5
49 Syracuse 74 67 52.5% 65 8 8 3
50 Louisville 79 61 56.4% 41 7 6 3
51 Rutgers 74 67 52.5% 65 6 8 4
52 Ohio St 80 64 55.6% 45 6 8 2
53 Utah St 81 62 56.6% 37 10 10 1
54 Oklahoma St 76 62 55.1% 48 7 7 3
55 TCU 70 67 51.1% 73 5 7 3
56 Virginia Tech 70 68 50.7% 75 6 6 2
57 Clemson 74 61 54.8% 50 6 6 2
58 Florida St 77 66 53.8% 54 7 7 2
59 Boston College 75 67 52.8% 62 8 8 3
60 West Michigan 81 59 57.9% 31 8 8 2
61 Georgia 75 65 53.6% 57 6 5 2
62 East Carolina 76 67 53.1% 61 8 9 3
63 Fresno St 75 69 52.1% 68 7 9 2
64 Kentucky 70 68 50.7% 75 7 6 1
65 Baylor 71 66 51.8% 69 5 6 3
66 Memphis 77 64 54.6% 51 7 8 4
67 North Texas 81 62 56.6% 37 8 8 2
68 Connecticut 72 66 52.2% 67 7 6 3
69 Hawaii 74 80 48.1% 92 7 8 2
70 Wyoming 76 66 53.5% 58 9 9 0
71 BYU 69 70 49.6% 81 4 8 1
72 NC State 74 64 53.6% 56 6 5 3
73 UCF 70 72 49.3% 85 5 7 3
74 Tulsa 66 73 47.5% 97 6 6 3
75 Iowa 59 66 47.2% 99 3 7 2
76 Cincinnati 75 66 53.2% 59 6 8 2
77 Navy 79 64 55.2% 47 6 8 2
78 Duke 67 71 48.6% 88 6 5 2
79 Ball St 73 69 51.4% 72 8 9 1
80 UNLV 68 75 47.6% 96 7 8 1
81 Wisconsin 70 71 49.6% 80 3 5 3
82 Bowling Green 68 69 49.6% 82 6 6 0
83 San Jose St 69 72 48.9% 86 8 8 0
84 Tulane 65 76 46.1% 103 5 7 3
85 North Carolina 67 68 49.6% 84 6 5 0
86 South Florida 63 74 46.0% 104 5 6 3
87 Cent Michigan 71 66 51.8% 69 6 6 2
88 Miami, Oh 66 74 47.1% 100 7 7 2
89 Temple 58 78 42.6% 120 5 6 1
90 Air Force 66 71 48.2% 91 5 7 2
91 Toledo 61 67 47.7% 95 6 6 0
92 New Mexico St 64 76 45.7% 109 5 6 2
93 Troy St 72 68 51.4% 71 6 7 1
94 UT-San Antonio 64 76 45.7% 109 6 7 1
95 Massachuttes 63 76 45.3% 113 5 5 2
96 East Michigan 57 80 41.6% 123 6 6 1
97 Florida Atlantic 71 69 50.7% 77 5 6 2
98 UL Monroe 72 79 47.7% 94 5 6 1
99 Kent St 67 71 48.6% 88 6 7 0
100 South Alabama 71 68 51.1% 74 5 7 0
101 Western Kentucky 65 69 48.5% 90 4 5 1
102 Idaho 66 73 47.5% 97 6 6 0
103 Texas St 73 66 52.5% 64 6 6 2
104 Boise St 61 79 43.6% 116 5 7 0
105 Buffalo 64 77 45.4% 112 7 7 0
106 N Illinois 62 73 45.9% 108 5 5 1
107 Middle Tennessee 66 72 47.8% 93 4 4 2
108 New Mexico 58 82 41.4% 124 4 8 0
109 Ohio 68 71 48.9% 87 5 6 0
110 Geor Southerm 69 69 50.0% 79 5 6 0
111 Louisiana Tech 68 69 49.6% 82 5 5 1
112 Houston 63 73 46.3% 102 4 6 1
113 Colorado St 57 82 41.0% 126 4 6 0
114 Florida International 63 74 46.0% 104 5 5 1
115 Nevada 57 81 41.3% 125 4 6 0
116 San Diego St 63 74 46.0% 104 5 6 0
117 Akron 59 76 43.7% 115 5 5 1
118 Rice 56 83 40.3% 127 4 4 2
119 Old Dominion 65 73 47.1% 101 5 5 1
120 Charlotte 60 78 43.5% 117 5 6 0
121 Army 59 78 43.1% 118 5 6 1
122 Louisiana-Lft 61 77 44.2% 114 4 5 0
123 Georgia St 61 73 45.5% 111 5 4 1
124 UTEP 57 79 41.9% 122 5 4 0
125 Arkansas St 58 78 42.6% 120 3 4 0
126 Appalachin St 63 74 46.0% 104 3 4 1
127 Marshall 59 79 42.8% 119 4 4 1
128 S Mississippi 53 80 39.8% 128 3 4 0