Predicting the Preseason AP Top 10

I am very proud of my record of picking the Top 10 AP teams six months in advance.

-- Most AP voters look at the number of returning starters the team has coming back, particularly at the offensive skill positions. Teams that return most of their starters on offense but lose a lot of defensive playmakers are usually more highly regarded than teams that return a majority of defensive starters but lose top skill position players on offense.

-- Another factor weighed heavily is the performance of the team in its bowl game, which is undoubtedly the lasting image voters carry with them during the offseason. A team coming off a huge bowl win is usually more highly regarded than a team that is coming off a bowl loss, regardless of what their schedule looks like for the upcoming season.

-- Also weighed heavily is where the teams finished the previous year. Naturally, teams that finished somewhere in the rankings (Top 25) have a much better chance of being preseason top 10 than a team that finished unranked.

-- I have the last four recruiting classes factored into my formula, including the 2016 freshman class. This gives me solid perspective of the total talent on hand.

Using these factors, along with a few others including strength of schedule, I make my projections. Now, as you all know, a lot can happen between February and August, including injuries, suspensions and transfers. But over the past seven years, I have been very successful using this method, including a perfect 10-for-10 in the past two seasons. Before I go into the rankings, it is important to make the point that this is not my preseason top 10 for next season, rather what I am projecting the AP top 10 will look like to start the season. Also, you’ll note that in 2016, Next week I will release a couple of more teams on Twitter (@philsteele042) as well as online at philsteele.com.

Now, let's take a look at this year’s projected preseason AP top 10 teams.

1. Alabama Crimson Tide
Ohio State was the consensus No. 1 team in 2015, drawing all 61 preseason No. 1 votes. This year there should be four or five that garner first-place votes. Going with the defending champ in the No. 1 slot is usually a good call, and there’s not a better team to vote No. 1 then Alabama. Last year there were a lot of doubters when it came to the Tide, who were not even picked by SEC media to win the conference (they picked Auburn), let alone the national title. Alabama has to replace quarterback Jake Coker, but the last two of three national titles by the Tide all came with first-year starting quarterbacks. The Tide had the No. 1 recruiting class for four straight years (2012-15), finishing No. 2 behind only Florida State in ESPN’s 2016 class rankings. With players like defensive end Jonathan Allen and linebacker Reuben Foster turning down the NFL, the defense remains one of, if not the best in the country. The Tide had just 10 returning starters last year and this year have 11 (plus both their kicker and punter), and with Nick Saban still in charge they should grab the No.1 spot in August -- and maybe in January as well.

2. Clemson Tigers
Quarterback Deshaun Watson and running back Wayne Gallman return to a team that put up 550 yards against the vaunted Tide defense in the title game. The Tigers also get back Mike Williams, who was their top wide receiver in 2014 but missed last year with injury. Voters love when the skill players are back. Clemson did have five defensive starters leave early for the NFL draft, including shutdown corner Mackensie Alexander and stud defensive end Shaq Lawson, and also graduates leading tackler B.J. Goodson, but did fare well on defense last year with just three returning starters. The 37-17 win over Oklahoma in the CFP semifinals will keep the Tigers ahead of the Sooners in the August top 10, and will draw some votes for No.1.

3. Oklahoma Sooners
In the 2015 Phil Steele College Football Preview, I pointed out that not being in the AP preseason top 10 was a good thing for Oklahoma. The only other two times the Sooners were not in the preseason top 10, they would finish No. 1 and No. 6 in the final poll. Last year OU did it again, finishing No. 3 despite being No. 19 in August. Most computers had them as the No. 1 team entering the College Football Playoff, and they were favored over No. 1 Clemson in the bowl. This year, the Sooners have 13 returning starters (plus their kicker and punter), including quarterback Baker Mayfield and running backs Samaje Perine and Joe Mixon. Most computers will have them in the top three, with some even having them at No. 1. They have the most manageable schedule of the top three, with Houston and TCU the toughest road games, and figure to be favored in all 12 games.

4. Florida State Seminoles
Florida State will be stealing some first place votes from Clemson in the ACC media vote, as FSU gets the Tigers at home this year. The Seminoles are the most experienced of the top four teams, as they return 17 starters. The 2016 team is a much more veteran unit than the version than started 2015, which had zero returning starters on the offensive line and just four starters back on offense. This year the Noles return all 11 offensive starters, including Heisman Trophy-caliber running back Dalvin Cook. Only two players left early for the NFL (defensive back Jalen Ramsey and kicker Robert Aguayo), and FSU has more returning starters than it’s had in at least 20 years -- from a team has lost just two regular season games in three years. They are playing their spring game in Orlando -- the same stadium where they open the season vs. Ole Miss -- and could be favored in every game this year.

5. LSU Tigers
Les Miles was on the verge of being fired late last year, but he has proven to be a Tiger with nine lives and bounced back with one of the nation’s top recruiting classes. I have great respect for the folks at ESPN Stats & Info, and their Football Power Index (FPI) has LSU rated No. 1 -- one of my main sets of power ratings agrees with that. The Tigers have 18 returning starters, which is the most in the SEC, and one of those returnees is running back and Heisman favorite Leonard Fournette. While LSU was depleted by the number of players leaving early for the NFL in 2012 and 2013, and three left early after last season, just one starter left early after 2015 (offensive lineman Jerald Hawkins).

6. Ohio State Buckeyes
Much like Alabama, the Buckeyes just reload each year -- their past four recruiting classes have all been in the top six of the rankings. But no team loses more players to the NFL draft, and the Buckeyes have just six starters returning. Quarterback J.T. Barrett is back, and one quarterback may turn out to be better than the three OSU had last year. The offensive line is young, but that was the case in 2012 and 2014 as well, and Ohio State averaged 5.2 and 5.7 yards per carry, and 37.2 and 44.8 points per game, in those seasons. The Buckeyes draw Oklahoma on Sept. 17 but get Michigan at home on Nov. 26th. That will be their 12th game of the year, and they will no longer be a young team, just a very talented team with close to a full season under their belts. Also, remember that OSU beat Michigan 42-13 last year, and that was in Ann Arbor. Urban Meyer has a regular-season conference record of 31-1 in his four years at Ohio State.

7. Michigan Wolverines
The cupboard was not left bare by former head coach Brady Hoke, and Jim Harbaugh came in and got the most out of the talent on hand. While Michigan was blown out by Ohio State, it rebounded to leave a strong impression in voters’ minds with a 41-7 thrashing of SEC East champ Florida in the Citrus Bowl. The only other losses last season were due to a fumbled punt snap versus eventual Big Ten champ Michigan State, and a seven-point loss to Utah on the road in their season opener. The Wolverines return 13 starters and are expected to be strong on both sides of the ball. Also, Michigan will be improved at most positions and second-year head coaches generally make strides.

8. Stanford Cardinal
When filling out a Top 25 ballot, you cannot ignore the West Coast, though last year voters did ignore Stanford. Though I had them as my No. 1 “Surprise Team” in the country in my magazine, and at No. 7 in my preseason rankings, they opened at just No. 21 in the AP poll. Despite having only three returning starters on defense and finishing “only” No. 43 in total defense (usually the Cardinal rank in the top 10), they finished No. 3 and just missed out on the playoffs. This year Stanford has six starters back on defense and should be one of the top units in the country. It also has one of the best offensive lines in the country and running back Christian McCaffrey, who broke Barry Sanders’ single-season all-purpose yards record and might have won the Heisman if the vote was taken after the 45-16 Rose Bowl crushing of Iowa. Stanford also beat Notre Dame in late November, which should keep the Cardinal slightly ahead of the Irish in the August poll.

9. Tennessee Volunteers
After starting 3-4, Tennessee won its final six to finish 9-4 and finish No. 22 in the end-of-season poll. That hardly sounds like a preseason top 10-caliber team -- until you examine the four losses. The Vols dominated Oklahoma for three quarters, but blew a 17-3 fourth quarter lead and lost in overtime to a team that made the College Football Playoff. They led Florida 27-14 in the fourth quarter, but lost it late to a Gators team that would reach the SEC title game. They lost by four points to Arkansas, and then on the road they only lost to eventual national champion Alabama by five, being out-first-downed 23-21. Tennessee played a lot of freshmen the past few years, but will have to stop using the “we’re young” label as it is now a veteran group with 17 returning starters, including senior quarterback Joshua Dobbs and junior running back Jalen Hurd. The Vols will be the clear-cut favorite to win the SEC East and if the road to the title game is smooth, a win there could put them in the playoffs.

10. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Notre Dame figures to be high on nearly every AP voter’s ballot, as in the past decade only once have the Irish finished higher than their next season’s preseason AP ranking. The 2015 squad was in the mix for a playoff spot late, despite losing a top defensive lineman, their top quarterback, and top two running backs for the season due to injuries. A loss to Stanford helped keep them out of the CFP, and then the Fighting Irish were handled by Ohio State (44-28) in the Fiesta Bowl. ND returns 10 starters overall, which is a step down from last year’s 16, but is a talented team with two solid quarterbacks in DeShone Kizer and Malik Zaire. The team could be favored in every game this year until it travels to USC in week 12, but does face 10 bowl teams from last year.