2023 Schedule with Power Ratings Forecasts
(Updated 1/30/24)

 

 

Click here to Download Phil Steele's Lines for all FBS vs FBS

This chart will be updated all season long for FREE for all members of Phil Steele Plus. Keep in mind if you sign up for my Inside the Pressbox weekly newsletter you get Phil Steele Plus for free all season long. Here are the categories and what each column means.

 

The Vegas Line. These are the current lines on this weeks games and the final lines for all of the previous games during the year.

 

Scores and Schedule – We list the scores of each game and the team in BOLD is the team that covered that game against the spread. Kevin updates all the Times and TV stations each game is on and updates the lines on Monday, Wednesday and Friday and then updates the final Saturday numbers as well. .

 

Last met Line. These are complete. Basically, if a team was -10 at home last year and are now in the road the line would be -4 as you would take away the 3-point home edge from the previous meeting and add 3 to the now home team for a 6-point change. If a block is in all Green it is at least 10 point away from current line and is a Best Bet.

 

Last met Score. A six-point difference. Example if you lost by 3 on the road last year and are now at home you would win by 3 at home with the home field edge shift. If a block is in all Green it is at least 10 point away from current line and is a Best Bet.

 

Plus Minus – I took my Plus Minus ratings on page 32 and added my home field edge from the home teams team page in the magazine to get to this number. The Plus Minus ratings change during the year. The future weeks have the opening plus minus and the current week has the lasts rating. Any full GREEN block is a Best Bet but please note the line on the game. As an example earlier in the year on September 23 there is a Green block around COLORADO -12.3 vs Colorado St. Since the line was Colorado -23.5 that was a Best bet on COLORADO ST as it was 11.1 points short of the line of Colorado -23.5. Colorado won by 8 so COLORADO ST did indeed win. If the name remains in black after the week that means that the Best Bet won and if the team name is in red, the Best Bet lost.

 

Average Game Grade – This is updated weekly with the difference between each teams Average Game Grade and the home field edge added in. Any full GREEN block is a Best Bet but please note the line on the game. As an example earlier in the year on September 23 there is a Green block around Georgia -30.6 vs UAB. Since the line was Georgia -40 that was a Best bet on UAB as it was 10 points short of the line of Georgia -40. Georgia won by 28 so UAB did indeed win. If the name remains in black after the week that means that the Best Bet won and if the team name is in red, the Best Bet lost.

 

Phil’s Preseason Line and Action Network Preseason Lines – This is my personal Preseason line on every FBS vs FBS game and Action Network Preseason lines. These were the lines that were made over the summer prior to the season. I left the lines up there for a couple of reasons. A) I wanted to see how much difference there was between the preseason lines and the current lines to get an idea of how much they change during the year. B) I wanted to see if there was any value either playing on or against the line moves. I started making any difference of 10 points or more a “Best Bet” and this way we can see where the value is.

 

Situation A/B/C – This category will break down each team’s situation. I will give each team an effort level of 1 to 5 depending what situation they are in. Each team has 15 points (3 points per week) for September, 12 points for the 4-week October and 12 points for the 4-week November. In October if a team uses a 5 effort level for one game they have just 7 points left for the other 4 games that month. This will help you discover when a team is playing its most important game of the month vs a team playing its third most important. If the number is a POSITIVE number that means the advantage belongs to the home team. If the number is a NEGATIVE number that means the advantage belongs to the ROAD team. Any edge of 1.5 or -1.5 or more is regarded as a Best Bet.

 

FPI – I took the current FPI numbers and factored in my home field edge and this is that forecast for the week and once again factors in my home field edge and not FPI’s.

 

REVENGE – If a game has a REVENGE 3 then that is a best bet on the team that LOST last year as 90% of the time they were favored to win. Revenge does not apply to just any team that lost last year it has to deal with if they were favored or if it cost them something major or something happened in the game (team scoring a TD in final seconds when could have taken a knee). Revenge 2 or Revenge 1 are for teams that lost last year but were not favored. I do not list it on any game as an example Indiana lost to Ohio St last year but they were very much expected to so they are not playing with revenge.

 

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE – This grades the current strength of schedule that each team has taken on this year. The Best Bet (GREEN) is on the team that is listed and it shows the edge. As an example on September 30 Texas had an 86 edge over Texas as Texas had taken on the #16 toughest schedule and Kansas came in at #102. After the week is over if the team is in Black they covered and if the team name is in RED they did not cover. Yellow is any number that is below a 40 difference and GREEN is above 40.

 

Last 4 Weeks AGG – At the start of the year I experimented with using the Last 4 weeks from the previous year and while the Best Bets were 3-1 the overall plays were 45-62. It took a few weeks off as the last 4 weeks was the AGG until after 4 weeks were played. There will not be much difference between the AGG and the last 4 weeks the first couple of weeks but starting next week we should see some decent changes and this will show CURRENT form vs teams as it only counts the last 4 weeks and after 8 games would be 50% of the games counted and the early 50% not counted. I will be using these often the next couple of weeks and probably have a Last 4 Weeks AGG play of the week each week on the Phil Steele Plus Tour.