Daily Blog • September 29, 2010

Every week we will post my Forecasts of all the games involving Top 25 teams. As usual, it includes my computer’s projected box score for each game.

Last week the Top 25 Forecasts went 19-2 (90.4%) picking the winners of each game and have gone 76-10 (88.4%) so far this season! That record may sound great, but do keep in mind most games have involved teams that were big favorites so the majority of people will have a solid record on these games as well. On the bottom of the forecast, I have also listed some Upset Specials for this week.

Top 25 Forecasts

#1 ALABAMA VS #7 FLORIDA
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
FLORIDA 122
178
22
2.6
•••
ALABAMA
214
263
28
2.1

The last two times these two have met have occurred in the SEC championship game with both games being #1 vs #2 matchups. While #2 Florida beat #1 Alabama 31-20 in '08, last year the #2 Tide returned the favor with a 32-13 win over the #1 Gators. The last time these two met here was back in Urban Meyer's first year in '05 and the #5 Gators were pummelled 31-3 giving Meyer his first loss at UF. Last week Alabama overcame a 13 pt 3Q deficit to claim a 24-20 victory at #10 Arkansas. Alabama's young secondary gave up 357 pass yds to Ark QB Mallett but were able to pick him off 3 times incl FS Lester getting two key int's. Ingram has not missed a bit since his return and already has 308 rush yds (9.3!) while Richardson leads with 356 (7.6). Florida's offense finally came to life in last week's 48-14 win over Kentucky thanks to Trey Burton who scored a school-record 6 TD's which broke Tim Tebow's record. QB Brantley is avg 175 ypg (64%) with a 6-1 and the exchanges from center seem to be improving every week. HC Meyer is 8-2 vs Top 5 teams including an upset of #1 OSU in the '06 Title game. The improving Gators are playing with revenge and their talented defense will keep it close throughout but in the end, the experienced battle-tested Crimson Tide get the win.

PHIL’S FORECAST : ALABAMA 24 FLORIDA 23

 

#3 BOISE ST AT NEW MEXICO ST
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
BOISE ST 284
310
51
1.3
••••
NEW MEXICO ST
31
125
8
2.7
The Broncos have never lost to the Aggies (10-0) and there maybe no other series more lopsided the last three years than this one as Boise has outscored New Mexico St 149-7 with incredible 1643-430 yd and 79-29 FD edges. While New Mexico St has finally found a passing game under new OC Dunbar, the running game has slipped this year and don't expect it to turn around this week as Boise St's front 4 is one of the best in the country and held Wyoming to -22 rush yds two weeks ago. This will be another lopsided game even if the Broncos are in a letdown spot after being in the national spotlight a week ago.
PHIL’S FORECAST : BOISE ST 52 NEW MEXICO ST 3

 

 

#5 TCU AT COLORADO ST
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
TCU 236
235
45
1.5
•••
COLORADO ST
79
205
10
2.9
TCU has won the last five by an avg of 32-9 but the last time here they only won 13-7 and were no doubt looking ahead to their game against BYU the following week. Colorado St is off their first win in 13 games as they beat Idaho 36-34 on a 35 yd FG as time expired. This year the Frogs only have Wyoming on deck and will want to make a statement after last week's game which saw them fall behind 17-14 in the 3Q to SMU.
PHIL’S FORECAST : TCU 45 COLORADO ST 10

 

 

#10 AUBURN VS ULM
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
ULM 57
183
8
2.7
AUBURN
299
283
46
2.4
••
Auburn is off two emotional home wins vs Clemson and South Carolina and clearly are in a flat spot here playing a noon game against a SBC team. QB Newton has been the difference for the Tigers and is avg 171 ypg (63%) with a 9-3 ratio and is the team's leading rusher with 485 yds (6.5). Last week he rushed for 176 yds and I voted him the Davey O'Brien QB of the Week. Last week, ULM barely escaped FCS SE Louisiana with a 21-20 win but did have a 363-266 yd edge. ULM does have a mobile QB in Browining who is avg 197 ypg (59%) with a 5-4 ratio and 183 rush (3.6). Even if the Tigers bring their "C" game they are clearly better than the Warhawks and they get the easy win here.
PHIL’S FORECAST: AUBURN 41 ULM 6


#12 LSU VS TENNESSEE
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
TENNESSEE 40
165
10
3.0
LSU
170
210
34
1.7
•••
These two have not met since the '07 SEC Championship game (21-14 LSU). Last week Tennessee barely survived a 2OT game against UAB in which the Blazers missed 5 FG's in regulation. QB Simms (209 ypg, 57%, 6-3) and the young Volunteer O-line will be making their first start on the road in a hostile environment. However it should be noted that this is scheduled for an afternoon start and the Tigers are a completely different team as they are 26-1 in Sat night home games while just 5-4 in afternoon home games under Miles. With that being said LW the Tiger defense held WV QB Geno Smith to just 119 pass yds(48%) and this week I see similar results as the Tigers move to 5-0.
PHIL’S FORECAST: lsu 27 tennessee 10

 

#17 IOWA VS #22 PENN ST
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
PENN ST 120
150
14
2.6
IOWA
125
240
25
2.2
Iowa has owned this series of late winning 7 of their L/8 against the Lions including last year as they came from behind to win 21-10 on the road at night. The seven wins have come by a combined 38 pts with LY's game being the only double digit win. The Hawkeye defense is allowing just 228 ypg (NCAA best) and will be going up against a young PSU QB in Bolden who is making just his second career road start (L 24-3 to Alabama earlier this year). Last week if you were checking scores you may have thought that Penn St was getting completely outplayed by Temple but that was not the case as they had a 439-202 yd edge but had to settle for a record 5 FG's. Iowa meanwhile rebounded from the Arizona loss to dominate Ball St 45-0. It's hard to ignore the recent history of the series as Iowa has won several close games and I'll for another here.
PHIL’S FORECAST : IOWA 20 PENN ST 13

 

 

#19 MICHIGAN AT INDIANA
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
MICHIGAN 304
250
44
2.1
INDIANA
116
315
27
2.0
Michigan survived last year's game against Indiana 36-33 thanks to a questionable call by the officials. This year the Wolverines are in a similar situation as they are undefeated and having a lot of success on offense so far this season. Last week they rolled to a 65-21 win over Bowling Green as they gained a school record 721 yds despite not having QB Robinson for the final 3Q's. HC Rodriguez said he could have returned later in the game but UM didn't need him as backup QB Forcier hit 12-12. Indiana has a high-powered offense of their own and are led by QB Chappell (#6 NCAA Pass Eff). Indiana's defense has been suspect at times and they are allowing 177 ypg and this week will face a speedy Wolverine spread attack. I expect a lot of points and yards in this one but in the end Michigan goes to 5-0 and matches last year's win total.
PHIL’S FORECAST : MICHIGAN 51 INDIANA 30

 

 

 

 

 

Upsets of the Week:
BUFFALO OVER BOWLING GREEN
WESTERN MICHIGAN OVER IDAHO

 

#2 OHIO ST AT ILLINOIS
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
OHIO ST 201
260
38
1.5
ILLINOIS
164
210
24
3.1
Illinois is a shocking 1-15 in Big 10 openers and it won't get any easier this year with the #2 Buckeyes coming to Champaign. Last year the Buckeyes beat the Illini 30-0 in the opener while holding them to just 170 total yds and this year the defense is allowing just 240 yds per game including just 71 rush (2.6). The Buckeyes offense has been explosive avg 507 total yds and are led by Heisman candidate Pryor who is avg 235 pass (66%) with a 10-2 ratio and has 269 rush yds. Last week Pryor accounted for 6 TD's as the Buckeyes scored the most points (73) since 1950. Illinois is coming off a bye week and should be well rested but the Buckeyes have won 7 straight in Champaign (last loss in '91) and should easily make it 8.
PHIL’S FORECAST : OHIO ST 41 ILLINOIS 13

 

#4 OREGON VS #9 STANFORD
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
STANFORD 182
190
31
2.8
OREGON
288
200
41
2.6

Outside of Alabama, Ohio St and Boise St, these two teams have probably been the most impressive so far this season. Oregon's "point-a-minute" offense "only" scored 42 pts last week in the win over Arizona St while the Cardinal are 4-0 for the first time since '86 and are off a dominating 37-14 win at Notre Dame. LY Stanford got Oregon off their 47-20 win against USC and Gerhart rushed for a school-record 223 yards as they became bowl eligible for the first time in 8 years with the 51-42 win. Prior to that game, the Ducks had topped the Cardinal 7 str times by an avg of 39-17 and Autzen stadium will be rocking as the Ducks continue their march to a second straight Pac-10 title.

PHIL’S FORECAST : OREGON 41 STANFORD 31

 

#8 OKLAHOMA VS #21 TEXAS
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
TEXAS 105
230
21
3.3
OKLAHOMA
120
220
27
2.3
••

This game has lost a little bit of its luster with Texas getting shocked 34-12 at home to UCLA last week as they turned it over 5 times. It was the Longhorns worst home loss under Mack Brown. The Sooners outside of the Florida St game have failed to put teams away this year and last week led Cincinnati 24-9 3Q before giving up a couple of scores in the 4Q and had to hang on for a 31-29 victory. Last year's game despite the injury to QB Bradford early in the game was controlled by the Sooners and this year they are much more experienced on offense. They are led by QB Jones who is avg 305 ypg (65%) with a 9-3 ratio while his top target WR Broyles leads the NCAA with 41 rec (11.8). RB Murray has 436 yds (4.2) but Oklahoma's defense is allowing a surprising 421 ypg. While both teams have yet to play up to their potential this year on a consistent basis, I expect both to play their best games of the year. In the end I will go with the Sooners who clearly have more firepower on offense and HC Stoops needs this game more (just 1-4 L/5 against Texas).

PHIL’S FORECAST : OKLAHOMA 27 TEXAS 17


#11 WISCONSIN AT #24 MICH ST
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
WISCONSIN 200
213
29
1.7
MICHIGAN ST
166
258
29
1.7
••
MSU HC Dantonio after suffering a heart attack two weeks ago will be back in the press box for this one but is still probably a week or two away from being on the sidelines in full coaching capacity. The home team has won five in a row in the series and last year Wisconsin dominated as they jumped out to a 38-16 lead before allowing a couple of garbage TD's. Both teams are off easy wins vs FCS teams and both have similar styles on offense and defense as they look to control the line of scrimmage. MSU outrushes its opp by an avg 232-85 while Wisconsin outrushes its opp by an avg of 260-94. This one is a tough call as both teams are very even and my computer agrees with a 29-29 proj score. With their HC looking on from above, the home Spartans get the extra emotional lift and beat the #11 Badgers in a great game.
PHIL’S FORECAST : MICHIGAN ST 34 WISCONSIN 33

 

#16 MIAMI, FL AT CLEMSON
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
MIAMI 142
218
25
2.7
CLEMSON
119
173
21
2.4
Miami is off an impressive win at Pittsburgh which graded out to be the #1 performance of last week according to my computer's game grades. This week they will be taking on a well-rested Clemson team that needed it after the heartbreaking OT loss to Auburn two weeks ago. Clemson has won each of the three ACC meetings with all of them going to OT. Last year's game featured an amazing 12 lead changes and this year I expect it to be no different as it could come down to who has the ball last. I'll give the advantage to the Hurricanes who are more explosive on offense and have one of the most agressive front 7's in the NCAA as they lead with 11.3 tfl per game.
PHIL’S FORECAST: MIAMI, FL 27 CLEMSON 20

 

#18 USC VS WASHINGTON
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
WASHINGTON 130
245
25
1.7
USC
240
270
38
2.3
Last year the Trojans were off a big road win at Ohio St and loss to the Huskies 16-13 on a FG w/:03 left. This will be just the second home game of the Kiffin era as USC is 4-0 for the first time under a new HC since 1951. Washington is off a bye week in which they had to regroup after being humiliated 56-21 to Nebraska. QB Locker's Heisman chances and #1 pick in next year's NFL draft may have suffered a fatal blow as he was just 4-20 for 71 yds with a 1-2 ratio. USC beat the Huskies 56-0 the last time here in '08 and the Trojans will want revenge from last year's upset.
PHIL’S FORECAST : USC 37 WASHINGTON 20

 

#23 NC STATE VS VIRGINIA TECH
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
VIRGINIA TECH 191
185
28
1.7
NC STATE
99
300
29
2.1
Both teams are off solid performances as the Hokies beat Boston College on the road 19-0 and NC State upset defeding ACC Champ Georgia Tech 45-28. The VT/BC game was a bit misleading as the Eagles were int'd in the EZ, missed a FG and then were stopped at the VT1 yd line as the clock ran out in the 1H. NC State is off to a 4-0 start (best S/'02) thanks to their QB Wilson. Last week Wilson threw for a career-high 368 yds and 3 TD's as the Pack finished with 27-15 FD and 527-363 yd edges. Seven of the last 8 games in this series have been decided by 7 pts or less and this one will be no different as I'll go with the Hokies who are 22-6 on the road in the ACC.
PHIL’S FORECAST : VIRGINIA TECH 31 NC STATE 28

 

#25 NEVADA AT UNLV
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
NEVADA 298
183
41
1.5
••
UNLV
113
248
20
1.6
These two in-state rivals meet in the "Battle for the Fremont Cannon." The series has been dominated by win streaks as Nevada won five straight from '99-'99 while UNLV won five in a row from '00-'04. Now Nevada has the upper hand in the series and have won five in a row. The Wolfpack are ranked for the first time since 1948 after their 27-13 win over BYU and are led by do-everything QB Kaepernick who is avg 231 ypg (69%) with a 7-1 ratio and also has 451 rush yds (8.1). Last year this game was tied at 21 at HT but Nevada blew it open in the 2H with 773 ttl yards and 32 FD's as they had 3 players with 170+ rush yds! The Wolfpack have dominated the LOS the last couple of years and have rushed for a combined 1,003 yds (8.9) and 12 TD's in the last two meetings. Don't expect a new 5 year trend here as the Wolfpack make it 6 in a row and get one game closer to a possible unbeaten showdown with Boise St in November.
PHIL’S FORECAST: NEVADA 41 UNLV 24