PHIL STEELE'S TOP 25 FORECASTS • Week 6

Every week we will post my Forecasts of all the games involving Top 25 teams. As usual, it includes my computer’s projected box score for each game.

So far this year the Top 25 Forecasts have gone 84-20 81% picking the winners of each game. That record may sound great, but do keep in mind most games have involved teams that were big favorites so the majority of people will have a solid record on these games as well. On the bottom of the forecast, I have listed some Upset Specials which have pulled the upset 8 out of 14 times. Combined the first five weeks record is 95-29 77%!!


#1 FLORIDA at #4 LSU
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
#1 Florida 210/193
185/134
29/13
2.1
••
#4 LSU
120/66
170/96
17/3
2.3
-
The winner of this game has won the last 3 national titles. UF has lost to an SEC West team every year since 1999, but Meyer’s teams are 27-3 with more than a week to prepare. Last year Miles suffered his worst loss in 4 years at LSU, 51-21 (LSU only trailed 20-14 mid-3Q). LSU is off a last minute 20-13 win over Georgia in which they had a 19-11 FD edge and a 368-274 yard edge, but the game winning touchdown drive was set up by a questionable celebration penalty. Florida luckily had a bye to get rested and hopefully Tebow will be healthy (concussion vs Kentucky). The dog has 3 outright upsets in this series since 2002. This is the toughest defense by far that LSU QB Jefferson has faced (averaging 184 yards per game, 7-2 ratio). LSU has won 32 consecutive Saturday night games at home, but Florida has edges on offense, defense and special teams.
PHIL’S FORECAST : florida 30 lsu 16

#3 ALABAMA at #20 MISSISSIPPI
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
#3 ALA 141/200
165/154
23/22
2.0
•
#20 MISS
129/72
195/140
21/3
2.14
-

The last 4 have only been decided by 3 ppg (UM 4-0 ATS). Last time in Oxford, a controversial call overturned a UM comp to the Bama4 with :07 left and UA (-6’) hung on for a 27-24 win. Last year UM  trailed 24-3 at the half but scored 17 consecutive pts in the 2H, falling just short 24-20. Nutt has 6 outright upsets vs Top 10S/’98 and beat eventual national champ Florida in the Swamp last year. UM QB Snead has struggled TY avg only 182 ypg (51%) with a 9-5 ratio while UA QB McElroy has excelled avg 217 ypg (66%) with a 9-1 ratio. I picked Ole Miss to win the West at the start of the year and despite Alabama playing the best ball so far this year, I will call for the upset at home.

PHIL’S FORECAST : MISS 23 ALABAMA 20

#9 OHIO STATE vs WISCONSIN
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
WISCONSIN 95/118
135/250
14/13
3.3
-
#9 OHIO ST
200/97
225/87
30/31
2.47
•
Last year Ohio State went 80/12pl and Pryor scored on an 11 yd run with 1:08 left for the 20-17 win in Madison. Last week Wisconsin trailed 13-10 at the half, but unleashed the conference’s leading rusher Clay (582, 5.2) who had 159 yds and 3 TD in the 2H. The B10’s most efficient passer QB Tolzien (209, 66%, 9-3 ratio) got his 1st road win LW but now faces his 1st top 35 defense. OSU won their 16th straight conference road game in a methodical 33-14 win at Indy (OSU 30-11 FD). Bucks allowed their 1st points in 9Q but IU scored the last TD vs the backups with no time left on the clock. QB Pryor (171, 58%, 8-5 ratio) is OSU’s leading rusher with 298 (5.4). RB Saine (294, 6.0) had 113 in his 1st start in place of the inj’d Herron (233, 3.6). Bucks are #10 NCAA rush D (83, 2.7) but the DL suffered a blow when top DT Larimore (Knee out this week) was inj’d vs IU. OSU has huge edges on defense (#4-71) and special teams (#11-70) and hand the Badgers their 1st loss.
PHIL’S FORECAST : ohio st 33 wisconsin 16

#11 MIAMI FL vs FLORIDA A&M
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
FLA A&M 20/118
118/144
11/16

1.8
–
#11 MIA
261/215
338/255
47/48
2.3
–

Miami is off their 21-20 upset of Oklahoma, a very even game where each team had 21 FD and Miami had a 342-341 yd edge. They have a trip to UCF on deck and will probably suffer some letdown from last weeks win. The Rattlers come in at 4-0 and ranked #22 in the FCS. However, they may want to escape this game as healthy as possible as they have a showdown at #17 South Carolina St on deck in a game which very well could decide the MEAC Champion. Florida A&M is led by former Kentucky transfer Curtis Pulley (PS#17), who leads the MEAC in Total Offence (284.2 ypg).

PHIL’S FORECAST : MIAMI 45 FLORIDA A&M 10

#13 OREGON at UCLA
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
#13 OREGON 173/221
12582
25/24
2.6
-
UCLA
117/66
215/145
23/10
2.8
••
UCLA dropped their 1st game of the season at Stanford last year and the Bruins may see the return of starting QB Prince (139 ypg, 56%, 2-2 ratio) here after missing the last 2 games with injury. #2 QB and last year’s starter Craft (195 ypg, 60%, 1-1 ratio) has played well in his absence. Last year UCLA  on the road but only lost 31-24 as UO QB Masoli struggled in the passing game completing just 5 of 19 for 42 yds (UO did rush for 323 yds, 7.0).The Ducks continued their run with a convincing home win vs WSU a week after their domination of Cal. While Oregon comes in off a pair of impressive wins this is their first road trip since getting held to 152 total yards at Boise. The Bruins defense is better than the Broncos and Oregon will likely be without QB Masoli.
PHIL’S FORECAST : UCLA (+) 24 OREGON 14

#15 OKLAHOMA ST at TX A&M
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
#15 OKLA ST 222/169
208/279
37/36
2.3
•
TEXAS A&M
159/109
318/273
31/31
2.4
-
Road opener for OSU who is just 8-16 on the road losing by an avg of 19 ppg. The Cowboys are off a much needed bye (4 starters out 2W ago). QB Robinson is avg 198 ypg (63%) with a 6-2 ratio. WR Bryant (missed last game) has 17 rec (19.0) and should be 100%. The Aggies are off their 1st defeat of the season (1st game vs a BCS school) after 3 cupcakes. QB Johnson is avg 327 ypg (62%) with an 11-0 ratio. A&M comes in ranked #70 in my pass efficiency defense allowing 222 ypg (56%) with a 5-1 ratio, after Ark’s Mallett shredded them for 4 TD’s last week, while OSU is #7 (233, 56%, 4-4). Kyle Field is a tough place for opponents but OSU is ready to start playing up to its talent level.
PHIL’S FORECAST : OKLAHOMA ST 40 TX A&M 30

 

 

#17 AUBURN at ARKANSAS
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
#17 AUBURN 168/242
240/133
32/23
2.2
–
ARKANSAS
152/221
320/274
34/44
2.5
–

Ark trailed 20-10 late 3Q last year, but scored 15 pts in the final 18:02 to win 25-22 as they had a 416-193 yd edge. Ark RB Smith rushed for 176 yards (5.0) in that game. The visitor is 6-1 in this series. This is the 2nd straight tough road game for Aub. Aub led Tenn 23-6 in the 4Q and UT scored a TD with no time left to make the game seem closer than it was (26-22). Ark crushed TX A&M 47-19 last week winning. Aub OC Malzahn was the OC at Ark in 2006 under Nutt but left for Tulsa after 2007. Ark (+7) upset Malzahn’s #19 undefeated Tulsa team last year 30-23 but Tulsa had a 528-435 yd edge. Both teams have quick-striking offenses and thin defenses, so points will be plentiful and this could go down to the wire.

PHIL’S FORECAST : ARKANSAS 37 AUBURN 34

 

 

#19 OKLAHOMA vs BAYLOR
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
BAYLOR 89/6
118/262
12/7
3.3
–
#19 OKLA
207/197
323/389
41/33
3.0
–

OU is 18-0 vs Baylor with the avg win by 24 ppg. Last time in Norman BU had 450 yds (most vs OU squad and about 100 yds over season avg) but Oklahoma won 52-. OU is off a tough game vs Miami, Fl and has rival Texas on deck. QB Jones is avg 215 ypg (60%) with a 10-3 ratio, but Bradford may start here after suffering a shoulder injury in Wk 1. BU took care of Kent St LW (outgained by 50 yds) with QB Florence (PS#76) making his 1st career start (276 total yds and 2 rush TD) in place of Griffin (ACL) and Szymanski (shoulder injury). If Szymanski starts it will actually will be his 3rd vs OU (avg 234 ypg, 54% with a 2-4 ratio being sacked 5x’s) or the 1st road start for Florence. OU has allowed ZERO pts and have outgained foes on avg 456-156 in Norman TY and is riding a 26 game home win. Tough spot for the Bears, in an injury letdown game, who have been down this road before after losing a starting QB. An angry Sooner squad off a loss will show the talent difference between these two teams.

PHIL’S FORECAST : OKLAHOMA 45 BAYLOR 10

 

 

#25 S CAROLINA at KENTUCKY
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
KENTUCKY 108/205
145/155
16/26
2.7
••
#25 S CARO
172/128
200/233
28/28
2.2
–

Last year SC (-2’) missed 4 FG’s but got an 81 yd blocked FG returned for a TD and an 84 yd kick return to set up another TD to pull out a 24-17 win and held UK to just 218 yards offense. South Carolina has won 9 in a row in this series and Spurrier is 16-0 all-time vs Kentucky. SC is off a 38-14 win over FCS SCSt while UK is off 2 losses to #1 FL and #3 AL and could be banged up playing in such physical games. UK allowed 362 rush (7.0) to FL and 204 (4.9) to Bama but matches up better this week because South Carolina doesn’t have a powerful OL or strong running game. QB Garcia has improved weekly and will have time to throw vs a weak UK pass rush (7 sacks in 4 game) and Spurrier continues his domination of the Wildcats.
PHIL’S FORECAST : s carolina 27 kentucky 13

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

#2 TEXAS at COLORADO
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
Colorado 50/42
170/85
12/14
3.9
–
 #2 Texas
240/46
315/267
49/38
2.5
•

Since UT was upset in the Big 12 Title game in 2001 (knocked from National Title game) they are 5-0 winning by an average of 44-10 versus Colorado. QB McCoy is averaging 286 yards per game (71%) with a 9-5 ratio. Colorado lost to West Virginia last Thursday Night and is on a 3-10 run. QB Cody Hawkins is averaging 261 yards per game (52%) with a 7-7 ratio. Last year Texas had Oklahoma on deck and rolled Colorado in Boulder 38-14.

PHIL’S FORECAST : Texas 45 Colorado 17

 

#5 VIRGINIA TECH vs BOSTON COLL
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
BOSTON COLL 112/45
120/118
16/14
2.7
–
#5 VA TECH
188/235
225/206
29/48
1.9
•••

In their last visit here, BC upset #8 VT on National TV with 2 Matt Ryan TD’s in the final 2:11 for the come-from-behind win. Last year BC overcame 5 TO’s to beat #17 VT 28-23 in the reg ssn at home, but has dropped two straight ACC Title games to the Hokies. VT QB Taylor is avg 174 ypg (54%) with a 6-1 ratio. RB Ryan Williams (PS#X) is 8th in NCAA in rushing yards (575, 5.2). BC QB Shinskie, in his 2 games as a full-time starter, avg 216 ypg (60%) with a 5-1 ratio. RB Harris has 449 rush yds (4.7). Both teams stand at 4-1. While BC has shown progress under Shinskie, however, this will only be their 2nd road game and the Eagles had just 54 yd and 4 FD in their first road game (vs Clemson) this year.

PHIL’S FORECAST : #5 VA TECH 30 BOSTON COLL 13

 

#10 TCU at AIR FORCE
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
#10 TCU 170/195
163/198
24/20
2.4
-
AIR FORCE
221/229
58/58
15/17
1.8
-
The Horned Frogs know how to shut down the option as they have limited the Falcon rush attack to 146 yds below their season avg the last 3 years! Last year AF was held to 161 yds with 111 coming on 2 runs and TCU won 44-10   at home. Last time here, AF overcame a 14 pt 4Q deficit in their 20-17 OT win in one of Patterson’s toughest losses of his career. AF is #2 in the NCAA avg 292 ypg rush (4.6) but TCU’s rush D is allowing an NCAA best 47 ypg (1.8). LW TCU was in a flat-spot against SMU and it showed with the Frogs struggling early (trailed 7-6 late 2Q). Meanwhile, AF played its most important game of the year LW and lost in OT to Navy and will be in a flat spot TW. TCU will remain undefeated with a comfortable win.
PHIL’S FORECAST : TCU 27 AIR FORCE 13

 

#12 IOWA vs MICHIGAN
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
MICHIGAN 135/195
145/124
19/28
3.2
–
#12 IOWA
195/83
230/284
26/30
2.7
-
Iowa is just 2-10 vs (last met ‘06). The Hawks have dropped 3 straight conference home openers including getting upset the L/2Y. Iowa’s 5-0 for the 1st time since 1995 (1st time under Ferentz) and UI has won 9 straight thanks to a closer than expected win over Ark St LW. The Hawks led 21-7 in the 4Q when Stanzi threw a 75 yd pick six. Stanzi (215 ypg, 59%, 8-7 ratio) has been inconsistent but the banged up offense got welcome news with the return of All-B10 LT Bulaga last week. The Hawks (122 rush ypg, 4.1) haven’t allowed a rush TD in 31Q’s. After a valiant 4Q comeback, Mich lost in OT to their rivals MSU, 26-20 as the Wolves were outFD’d 22-14 and outrushed 193-28. Despite a shoulder inj, QB Forcier (179, 60%, 9-3) led his 3rd 4Q comeback but he also threw an interception in overtime. After a hot start the Wolves’ ground game has stumbled vs BCS foes (122, 3.2) including just 28 yds last week. UM’s D is allowing 153 rush ypg (4.2) with just 6 sacks TY. Iowa wins their 10th straight at the hands of the young Wolves
PHIL’S FORECAST : iowa 27 MICHIGAN 20

 

#14 PENN ST vs E ILLINOIS
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
E ILLINOIS -27/59
143/147
3/3
1.9
–
#14 PENN ST
277/0
268/268
41/52
2.6
–

Penn St got back on track last week after losing to Iowa as they defeat Illinois 35-17 with a 513-393 yd edge. Penn St is in a Big 10 sandwich as they host Minnesota next week. Last year vs Coastal Carolina the Nittany Lions showed little mercy running up a 66-10 final. Eastern Illinois comes in 4-1 and ranked #25 in the FCS. EIU is off a disheartening loss to OVC rival Eastern Kentucky (#16) in a game they led 24-16 before giving up 3 TD in less then 10 min including an int for a TD. The Panthers finish out the regular season with 5 straight OVC games and will likely just want to get out of town relatively healthy. While Penn St will likely put in the backups in the 2H look for them to put up some big numbers early.
PHIL’S FORECAST : PENN ST 45 E ILLINOIS 3

 

#16 KANSAS vs IOWA STATE
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
IOWA ST 127/219
218/293
19/36
3.1
••
#16 KANSAS
169/109
348/442
37/41
1.7
–
Homecoming and Big 12 opener for KU. ISU is off a loss to KSU and has dropped 10 straight conference games  by an avg of 19 ppg. KU is off a bye and is on a 21-1 run versus non-ranked foes, outscoring them by 27 ppg. QB Reesing is avg 284 ypg (67%) with a 9-2 ratio. ISU QB Arnaud is avg 158 ypg (53%) with a 7-4 ratio. Both teams are running the ball better TY (KU 209 ypg, ISU 207 ypg) but ISU RB Robinson is suffering from a groin injury (did not play last week after 1Q).
PHIL’S FORECAST : KANSAS 38 IOWA ST 17

 

#18 BYU at UNLV
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
#18 BYU 176/291
300/320
40/59
2.5
–
UNLV
104/45
240/292
21/21
2.3
–

Last year’s game was tied 4 times before LV allowed a 74/11pl drive with 1:46 left in the 42-35 loss on the road (+23’). LV HC Sanford’s seat is getting warmer after 2 straight disappointing losses. Last week the Rebels were actually tied with Nevada late in the 3Q before giving up 35 straight points in a 63-28 loss. Meanwhile, BYU has rebounded after the FSU game with two straight home wins. BYU does travel well to Vegas and has played 6 games in this stadium the last 4 years including bowls.
PHIL’S FORECAST : BYU 40 UNLV 26

 

#21 NEBRASKA at #24 MISSOURI
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
#21 NEBRASKA 132/105
238/158
28/27
2.1
••
#24 MISSOURI
119/91
268/134
23/12
2.5
–

This is a big showdown in the Big 12 North. Missouri is better than expected but NU has really impressed and they have not had a bad game all year. They could've easily won in Blacksburg with an18-11 FD and 343-277 yard edge. I'll side with the Huskers on the road.

 
PHIL’S FORECAST : Nebraska 27 mizzou 20

 

#22 GEORGIA TECH at FLA ST
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
#22 GA TECH 263/401
155180
26/49
2.3
•
FLORIDA ST
147/131
290/359
28/44
2.7
-

Last year Bowden and the Noles lost to Georgia Tech  for the 1st time since 1975 (12-0 prior). GT has never won in Tallahassee (0-6). Last year FSU’s offense ran 9 plays from scrimmage in the 1st 15 minutes for -18 yds and GT led 31-20 but lost QB Nesbitt to injury. FSU had a 2nd&gl from the 3 but fumbled into the endzone with :45 left losing 31-28 (+2’). This is Georgia Tech’s 3rd road game in 4 weeks.  Nesbitt is avg 142 ypg (51%) with a 3-2 ratio and has 363 rush yds (3.6). FSU QB Ponder is avg 285 ypg (67%) with a 4-1 ratio. Surprisingly, GT comes in at 4-1 while FSU is 2-3 (0-4 ATS as a fav). GT has a solid offensive edge (#10-45) but FSU has the slight defensive edge (#31-41) and needs to circle the wagons. Florida St has comparable talent to Miami and Miami rolled GT on the road 33-17 this year.

PHIL’S FORECAST : FLORIDA ST 34 GEORGIA TECH 27

 

 

Phil's Top 25 Forecasts
84-20 81%!

UPSET SPECIALS:

Illinois over Michigan St

 

Kent St over Bowling Green

 

Georgia over Tennessee