#1 FLORIDA vs
TROY
|
Rushing |
Passing |
Points |
TO’s |
| TROY |
35 /73 |
190/66 |
7 / 6 |
3.2 |
| #1 FLORIDA |
260/291 |
285/372 |
47 /56 |
1.7 |
In their only previous meeting, Florida beat Troy 59-31 in ‘07 in a game they led 49-7 at the half with a 342-130 yd edge. Last week Florida only had allowed Charleston Southern 206 yards in the first half! They did play a vanilla defense and still won 62-3. Troy went up 14-0 LW at BG but failed to score in the 2H in a 31-14 road loss. Florida should come prepared as Troy led LSU 31-10 in the 4Q LY in a tough 40-31 loss. I was surprised at Troy’s performance last week and expect them to play better this week and Florida has Tennessee on deck.
PHIL’S FORECAST: FLORIDA 41 Troy 14
#3 USC vs #8 OHIO ST
|
Rushing |
Passing |
Points |
TO’s |
| #3 USC |
190/118 |
245/195 |
34 / 18 |
3.4 |
| #8 OHIO ST |
160/88 |
155/177 |
19 /15 |
2.7 |
2008’s matchup between these programs was much closer than the final as OSU had the 1H yard edge but had TWO TD’s called back on penalty, missed a chip shot FG and played without star RB Wells, plus true frosh QB Terrelle Pryor was just getting acclimated to the system. OSU is 47-1 at home vs non-conf (only loss vs #2 Texas in ‘05) and looked ahead vs Navy last week as they had to hold on for the 4 point win (363-342 yd edge). Still they led by 15 and had they converted a 4th and 1 they may have won by 22. USC is 11-1 in its first road game and has a true frosh QB making his first road start (usually worst game of career for QB) in a hostile environment. However, Barkley was in for spring and does have a tremendous supporting cast with my #1 rated offensive line and excellent skill players. He is also very poised for a true frosh. Last week USC had the best performance of any team in the FBS with a 620-121 yard edge in their 56-3 thrashing of a bowl caliber San Jose St squad. The setting and situation favors the Buckeyes but the talent edge appears to be with the Trojans.
PHIL’S FORECAST: Usc 27 OHIO ST 20
#5 OKLAHOMA ST vs
HOUSTON
|
Rushing |
Passing |
Points |
TO’s |
| HOUSTON |
74 /146 |
360/366 |
28/45 |
3 |
| #5 OKLAHOMA ST |
311/194 |
275/240 |
44/35 |
2.1 |
Houston is 2-2 recently vs the Cowboys (series tied 9-9-1) but last year at home OSU rolled up 699 ttl yds including 379 rush (CLICK HERE FOR LAST 12 YEAR MATCHUPS). Houston actually led 16-14 at the half before the Cowboys pulled away in a 56-37 home win. UH won 34-25 at home in ‘06 and has passed for 313 and 387 in the last two matchups. OSU is off their much hyped opener vs Georgia, but it was the defense (allowed just 257 yards) and not the offense that shined in the win. Houston will be playing their “A” game after a blowout 55-7 win over FCS Northwestern St last week and with a bye on deck. Both offenses are potent but Oklahoma St has the much stronger defense and should find their offensive rhythm (held to just 307 yds LW) as they go from facing a Top 10 defense to one of the weaker ones in the FBS.
PHIL’S FORECAST: OKLAHOMA ST 49 Houston 35
#9 BYU vs
TULANE
|
Rushing |
Passing |
Points |
TO’s |
| #9 BYU |
152/200 |
280/334 |
33/54 |
2.6 |
| TULANE |
73/41 |
245/125 |
11/3 |
2.8 |
BYU took a major step towards a National Title run with their upset over Oklahoma LW, however Tulane is dangerous here. Last year when they were healthy at the start of the year they caught Alabama the week after their big win over Clemson and had amazing 18-11 FD and 318-172 yard edges but lost 20-6 helped, in part, by 2 Bama special team TD’s. The next week they caught East Carolina off two straight upset wins over ranked teams (WV and VT) and EC needed a TD with 1:41 left to pull out a come-from-behind 4 pt win. BYU is in a similar type of sandwich as they just beat Oklahoma and have their huge home opener vs Florida St next week. This is also BYU’s 1st game in a dome for their current team. Last year, Tulane was blown out often at the end of the year without their top RB Anderson and WR Williams but now both are back. The Green Wave have an extra day to prep after losing to Tulsa on Friday night, have been at home the last month plus and have a bye on deck. Tulane also left a lot of points off the board last week. Tulane has the biggest situational edge of any team but I will still side with the talented Cougars to win by 17.
PHIL’S FORECAST: BYU 37 TULANE 20
#11 LSU vs
VANDERBILT
|
Rushing |
Passing |
Points |
TO’s |
| VANDERBILT |
145/122 |
120/88 |
15/9 |
2.7 |
| #11 LSU |
190/178 |
250/148 |
32/23 |
2.7 |
Vanderbilt’s last win in Baton Rouge was in 1951. These teams last met in 2005 (CLICK HERE FOR LAST 12 years matchups). Last year Vandy was outgained by 64 ypg but stil made it to a bowl. The ‘Dores are a much more veteran team than their 2008 version. LSU is off the longest road trip in school history, a 31-23 win over Washington that began at 9:30 LSU time. LSU was outgained 478-321 with QB Jefferson throwing for 172 yards and 3 TD’s, but RB Scott was held to 52 rush yds (4.3). VU is off a 45-0 win over Western Carolina with RB’s Norman (105, 2 TD’s) and Stacy (133, 1 TD) becoming the first pair of true frosh to rush for over 100 yds in a gm. QB Smith (10-18 for 153, 1 TD) left the gm late 3Q due to cramping. LSU only has ULL on deck and will be focused for a 2008 bowl squad.
PHIL’S FORECAST: LSU 34 Vanderbilt 13
#13 OKLAHOMA vs
IDAHO ST
|
Rushing |
Passing |
Points |
TO’s |
| #13 OKLAHOMA |
324/278 |
365/286 |
58/64 |
1.9 |
| IDAHO ST |
-49/-22 |
165 /66 |
0 /0 |
3.9 |
CLICK HERE to get the complete half-page the Idaho St football team. The Sooners are off their 14-13 loss to MWC member BYU last Saturday where, everyone knows, they lost QB Bradford. What many don’t realize is that Bradford played the entire first half and BYU still had an impressive 245-164 yardage edge – even with the Sooners at full strength. Idaho St is coming off a 50-3 loss to Arizona St where they were outgained 407-37 (-5 rush yds). OU is feeling the sting of last week, but this is an offense without its leader (2-4 weeks) and starting TE Gresham (out year) and they need to prove to themselves they can work without their stars and will do so here.
PHIL’S FORECAST: OKLAHOMA 52 Idaho St 0
#15 GEORGIA TECH vs
CLEMSON
|
Rushing |
Passing |
Points |
TO’s |
| CLEMSON |
161/125 |
150/261 |
21/27 |
2.8 |
| #15 GA TECH |
264/301 |
120/117 |
23/30 |
3.5 |
There have been 6 upsets in this series the last 9 years. CLICK HERE for the last 12 years matchups. LW QB Kyle Parker became the 1st Frosh to start a CU opener S/’45 and guided the Tigers to a 37-14 win, throwing for 159 yds (45%) with a 2-0 ratio. Paul Johnson is 7-1 at home in his 2 years with the Jackets and in the only ACC Thurs Nite game last year Georgia Tech throttled Miami, FL 41-23 with 472 yards (8.4) rush. LW GT handled Jacksonville St 37-17 with QB Nesbitt throwing for 141 yds (55%) with a 1-0 ratio. He was also the #2 rusher (93, 6.6) with Dwyer leading (95, 13.6). I will have my forecast for this up for you on Thursday night at 6:00 EST.
PHIL’S FORECAST: GEORGIA TECH 23 Clemson 21
#17 UTAH vs
SAN JOSE ST
|
Rushing |
Passing |
Points |
TO’s |
| #17 UTAH |
165/256 |
168/240 |
27/24 |
2.9 |
| SAN JOSE ST |
96/21 |
223/254 |
18/14 |
3 |
Utah currently owns the nation’s longest win streak (15) and finished last year #2 in the polls. Utah opened the season last Thursday with a 35-17 win over Utah St, as they broke in a new starting QB. SJSt was held to just 121 total yds (8 FD’s) in their opening 56-3 loss at USC. In the last 4 games vs ranked foes at home the Spartans are 0-4 but lost two contests in OT and one on a last-second FG. Utah’s QB Cain now makes his first road start and you have to believe that HC Tomey looked past a “sure loss” to USC to focus on a winnable home opener against a ranked foe. I will call for the upset!
PHIL’S FORECAST: SAN JOSE ST 24 Utah 23
#19 NORTH CAROLINA vs
CONNECTICUT
|
Rushing |
Passing |
Points |
TO’s |
| #19 N CAROLINA |
123/35 |
150/233 |
23/12 |
3.2 |
| CONNECTICUT |
152/72 |
170/124 |
18/10 |
3.4 |
Connecticut lost star RB Brown (#1 DC) who gained 161 vs the Heels LY, but return a veteran OL, and new threats out the backfield as RB’s Todman and Dixon combined for 257 yards (5.8) in last week’s 23-16 win over Ohio. UC’s new no-huddle hurry up offense has familiar problems as ND transfer QB Frazer threw 3 int (11-24, 46% last week). NC comes into the game after a warm-up vs The Citadel winning 40-6. After losing 4 of their top 5 receivers (4 DC’s), NC rushed for 261 yards (5.9) the most since 2004 and allowed just 30 yards rush, the best since 2005. RB Draughn (118, 5.9 LW) gained 109 yards last year vs UC and the defense returns 9 starters (most in the ACC) to a unit that allowed 139 ypg rush (3.7) LY. NC is capable of the road win.
PHIL’S FORECAST: N Carolina 23 CONN 16
#22 NEBRASKA vs
ARKANSAS ST
|
Rushing |
Passing |
Points |
TO’s |
| ARKANSAS ST |
143/170 |
110/122 |
13/9 |
2.8 |
| #22 NEBRASKA |
192/137 |
220/358 |
38/38 |
2.6 |
The Huskers pounded SBC foe FAU last week 49-3. Arkansas St gets up for their Big 12 foes and only had FCS Mississippi Valley St last week (won 61-0 with a 496-69 yd edge) and a has bye next week. In ‘07 they outgained #4 Texas in a close 21-13 loss and last year they upset Texas A&M in Mike Sherman’s home debut 18-14. Ark St has 15 ret starters, including 4th year starting QB Leonard (last week became the school’s career yardage leader with 7433) and 3-time 1,000 yard rusher Arnold. Nebraska QB Lee was 15-22 (68%) with 213 yds and a 2-1 ratio in his college debut and RB Helu had 152 yds (9.5) in a little over a half. Huge mismatch with Neb D-line against an inexperienced ASU OL. Huskers do have Virginia Tech on deck.
PHIL’S FORECAST: NEBRASKA 37 Arkansas St 13
#24 KANSAS vs
UTEP
|
Rushing |
Passing |
Points |
TO’s |
| #24 KANSAS |
190/255 |
263/321 |
38/34 |
2.2 |
| UTEP |
126/4 |
313/204 |
26/7 |
2.1 |
UTEP gets up for these home games vs the Big 12 and last year only trailed powerful Texas 28-13 in the 4Q and should have beaten Texas Tech in ‘06, but lost in OT. Kansas has had just 3 non-conference away games in 5 years and lost all 3 (to USF, Toledo and Northwestern). Kansas QB Reesing accounted for 4 TD’s vs overmatched Northern Colorado last week. UTEP outgained Buffalo 372-309, but had 12 penalties for 101 yards and had their game-winning TD in the final minute wiped out by a late holding call. A celebration penalty was also called after their TD and their next play was back on the 42! Vittatoe was 27-45 for 233 yards, but failed to throw a TD pass for just the 3rd time in 24 career starts. My computer shows a tight game with Kansas having only a 453-439 yard edge.
PHIL’S FORECAST: UTEP 38 Kansas 37
|
#2 TEXAS vs
WYOMING
|
Rushing |
Passing |
Points |
TO’s |
| #2 TEXAS |
181 / 191 |
315/ 353 |
42 / 41 |
2.5 |
| WYOMING |
64 /85 |
150/ 188 |
6 / 10 |
3.8 |
This marks the third meeting between these two (Texas 2-0), but the first since 1978. Wyoming head coach Christensen was the OC at Missouri and last year his Tigers scored 31 at Texas (UT allowed 16 ppg at home). Of course, he does not have QB Daniel, WR Maclin or TE Coffman and in that gm Missouri had 3 pts at the half and most of their points came with the game long over. Wyoming is 5-2 hosting a current BCS team upsetting Virginia (‘07) and Ole Miss (‘04) their last two. Texas rarely plays in altitude or in front of this size of a crowd (30,000) and they have a legitimate revenge game on deck vs Texas Tech who dealt them their only loss in ‘08. Still Horns could have crowd edge and they definitely have the talent edge.
PHIL’S FORECAST: Texas 41 WYOMING 6
#4 ALABAMA vs
FIU
|
Rushing |
Passing |
Points |
TO’s |
| FIU |
-9 / 1 |
168 /213 |
10/14 |
2.5 |
| #4 ALABAMA |
249 /275 |
238 / 241 |
41/40 |
2 |
Bama beat FIU 38-3 in 2006 in the only prior meeting with FIU having just 6 FD’s. Bama did lose to SBC member ULM two years ago at home. Last year Bama beat Clemson in the opener in Atlanta and then had a letdown the next week vs Tulane being outFD’d 18-11 (won 20-6, -29’). While Bama is off a tight 10 point win vs Virginia Tech they had a 498-155 yd edge. QB McElroy (230 yd, 1-1 ratio) made his 1st career start and RB Ingram had a career high 150 rush yards (5.8). FIU was a much stronger team LY than their ‘07 version and has 16 returning starters but Bama does have just 12 lettermen lost. FIU is charged up for the start of their season and will have their “A” game vs a “C” game for the Tide but Bama should still win comfortably. My computer shows -9 yards rushing for FlU and Bama with 249 rush and 238 pass.
PHIL’S FORECAST: ALABAMA 38 Fiu 10
#7 PENN ST vs
SYRACUSE
|
Rushing |
Passing |
Points |
TO’s |
| SYRACUSE |
34 /65 |
133/135 |
8/7 |
2.6 |
| #7 PENN ST |
222/78 |
283/240 |
36/28 |
2.5 |
Last year Penn St rolled to a 55-13 win in their first meeting since 1990 (Penn St leads series 41-23-5). Basketball player-turned-QB Greg Paulus (PS#4) went 19-31 for 167 with a 1-1 ratio but was ineffective with a 20-14 1H lead going 7-14 including 0-8 on 3rd downs in the 2H. Last week Syracuse was outgained 360-257 while Penn St defeated Akron 31-7 as QB Clark threw for a career high 353 yds and 3 TD’s. A fumble set up UA’s only score and the Lions missed 2 FG’s. Akron did NOT have a FD in the first half! Syracuse has averaged just 14 points per game on the road vs non-conference foes the last 4 years. This one is sandwiched between a pair of MAC teams so Penn St will be fully focused.
PHIL’S FORECAST: PENN ST 41 Syracuse 10
#10 CALIFORNIA vs
EASTERN WASHINGTON
|
Rushing |
Passing |
Points |
TO’s |
| E WASH |
-4/14 |
195/221 |
11/7 |
1.8 |
| #10 CAL |
284/342 |
375/165 |
50/59 |
2.1 |
CLICK HERE to get the complete half-page on Eastern Washington. EW is coming off a 35-14 win over Western Oregon, a game they should have won easier. E Washington is under probation so they can’t go to the playoffs this year, so this is their bowl game. Cal is one of the top teams in the country.
PHIL’S FORECAST: CAL 49 E Wash 7
#12 BOISE ST vs
MIAMI, OH
|
Rushing |
Passing |
Points |
TO’s |
| MIAMI, OH |
52/37 |
150/160 |
5/0 |
3.2 |
| #12 BOISE ST |
248/126 |
280/315 |
42/48 |
2.1 |
LY Boise won their HG’s by an average of 41-8 but their closest game on the blue turf actually came vs MAC member Bowling Green (20-7). Boise is one of the top non-BCS teams this year and Miami is in a rebuilding year with a new HC and this is a rare trip out West for them. This is a sandwich spot for Boise, who is off its big home Thursday night win vs Oregon and has a short week to face WAC rival Fresno on the road on Friday. Miami held Kentucky scoreless in the 1Q but was outgained 488-188 in their 42-0 shutout loss. QB Daniel Raudabaugh threw for just 126 (38%) with an 0-2 ratio LW. Boise QB Kellen Moore threw for 197 (56%) with a 1-0 ratio and should improve his numbers vs a rebuilding Miami squad.
PHIL’S FORECAST: BOISE ST 49 Miami, Oh 3
#14 VIRGINIA TECH vs MARSHALL
|
Rushing |
Passing |
Points |
TO’s |
| MARSHALL |
108/126 |
150/126 |
15/10 |
2.6 |
| #14 VA TECH |
202/444 |
205/161 |
31/52 |
2.4 |
Marshall faced 3 teams from BCS conferences last year and was outscored 111-27. The Herd is 0-2 vs Virginia Tech since 2002, losing by 27 ppg (last met ‘05). This is a sandwich for VT as they’re off their loss to #5 Alabama (outgained 498-155) with Nebraska coming to Blacksburg next week. MU however, is coming off a nail-bitter falling behind Southern Illinois 14-7 in the 1H before rallying in the 4Q for the 31-28 win. QB Anderson, in just his 3rd career start, threw for a career high 316 yds (75%!) with a 3-1 ratio. WR Walker had 10 rec (11.9) and TE Slate had 9 (12.7). VT QB Taylor threw for 91 yds (45%) with a 0-0 ratio and was sacked 5 times. RB R Williams, who took over for the injured Evans, rushed for 71 yards (5.5) and grabbed 2 rec (21.0). VT can not look past this feisty opponent.
PHIL’S FORECAST: VA TECH 27 Marshall 13
#16 TCU vs
VIRGINIA
|
Rushing |
Passing |
Points |
TO’s |
| #16 TCU |
182/203 |
188/177 |
23/30 |
2.1 |
| VIRGINIA |
94/57 |
148/120 |
12/14 |
3.5 |
These two last met in the ‘94 Independence Bowl as #18 UVA defeated TCU 20-10. Virginia has the edge of a game under their belt and catches the Frogs in a rare trip to the East Coast. TCU has won 6 straight season openers with 4 of them vs BCS conf schools and that includes an upset of #7 Oklahoma on the road in ‘05. Virginia has pulled NINE outright upsets at home under Groh. UVA used all 3 of their QB’s but none were effective and with 7 turnovers they lost to William & Mary. Al Groh is the coach on the hottest seat right now.
PHIL’S FORECAST: Tcu 23 VIRGINIA 13
#18 NOTRE DAME vs
MICHIGAN
|
Rushing |
Passing |
Points |
TO’s |
| #18 NOTRE DAME |
128/154 |
290/336 |
26/34 |
2.5 |
| MICHIGAN |
192/190 |
180/240 |
21/38 |
3.3 |
The home team is 8-2 and the last 3 have been decided by 27 ppg. CLICK HERE for the last 12 years matchups on the game (6 outright upsets in 9 years). UM had 6 TO’s and trailed 21-0 just 4:00 into last year’s meeting and despite losing 35-17 they had a 388-260 yd edge. In Rod’s 2nd year at WV his team went from 21.4 ppg to 30.5 ppg and with mobile QB’s like Forcier (PS#16) and Robinson they should be potent. They beat ND 38-0 the last time here and also won 38-0 in ‘03. The Irish dominated Nevada leading 28-0 at the half. Clausen has hit 39 of 48 passes his last two games for 718 yd with 8 TD passes. WR Floyd was my pick for Receiver of the Week last Thursday and he delivered vs Nevada (189 yds). The D pitched the first shutout in the Weis era in Tenuta’s debut as the defensive play caller. UM took a rough week out on W Michigan leading 31-0 at the half while outgaining the Broncos 289-79. The Irish are the more talented team and grab the road win.
PHIL’S FORECAST: Notre Dame 27 MICH 20
#21 GEORGIA vs
S CAROLINA
|
Rushing |
Passing |
Points |
TO’s |
| S CAROLINA |
52/114 |
143/313 |
11/37 |
2.8 |
| #21 GEORGIA |
139/107 |
238/201 |
23/41 |
2.8 |
Last year was a tough loss for SC as they trailed 14-7 and had 3 drives in Georgia territory but fumbled into the EZ for a TB on 2nd and goal, were SOD at the 31 and intercepted at the 3 (with :13 left). Six of the last 8 in this series have been decided by a TD or less (CLICK HERE for last 12 years matchups). SC won their last trip to Athens 16-12 in ‘07. SC has allowed just 1 offensive TD the last 8 quarters vs UGA. The winner has scored 20 or less in 7 of the last 8 with the two teams combining for 27 ppg. SC held NCSt to 133 total yds and 3 pts in their 7-3 upset win LW with SC’s offense (256 total yards) struggling behind QB Garcia (13-22 for 148, 0-1 ratio). SC had 2 drives inside the NCSt 10 result in 0 pts (missed 27 yd FG, bad snap on another FG att). UGA is off a disappointing 24-10 loss to Oklahoma St. The talent says Georgia by 2 TD’s but the history says it will be closer.
PHIL’S FORECAST: GEORGIA 20 S Carolina 13
#23 CINCINNATI vs
SE MISSOURI ST
|
Rushing |
Passing |
Points |
TO’s |
| SE MO ST |
21/71 |
175/115 |
12/3 |
2.3 |
| #23 CINCINNATI |
259/220 |
325/351 |
45/70 |
3.1 |
CLICK HERE to become an instant expert on SE Missouri St football. Cincinnati was VERY impressive on Monday as their offense annihilated Rutgers. QB Pike threw for a career high 362 yds (79%) with a 3-1 ratio and UC finished with a 564-293 total yardage edge (FD’s closer though at 26-22). SE Missouri St is coming off a 72-3 win over NAIA Quincy, a team that defeated Indiana St the week before. This is a tremendous flat spot for Cincy as they have a long way to travel for a big game at Oregon St next week.
PHIL’S FORECAST: CINCINNATI 45 SE MO St 10
#25 MISSOURI vs
BOWLING GREEN
|
Rushing |
Passing |
Points |
TO’s |
| B GREEN |
62/114 |
248/206 |
16/20 |
2.5 |
| #25 MISSOURI |
214/181 |
303/172 |
39/27 |
2.2 |
Pinkel has many MAC ties as he is a Kent St graduate, was a BG WR coach and Toledo’s HC from 1991-2000. BG has beaten Pinkel twice: 20-13 in his 1st home game here in ‘01 and 51-28 at home in ‘02 (last meeting). Both teams are young as the Tigers are the least experienced team in the FBS and BG has just 10 starters back and a new HC and is making its first road trip. The Falcons upset Troy 31-14 but that was inflated by a late 64 yd interception returned for a TD as they only had a 389-305 yard edge. BG QB Sheehan has avg 280 ypg (62%) in 4 games visiting BCS teams, including guiding 2 outright upsets and threw for 339 (73%) with a 2-1 ratio last week. They REALLY impressed me last week and played well beyond their experience level. Missouri is off a 37-9 win over Illinois where QB Blaine Gabbert threw for 319 yds (76%) with a 3-0 ratio in his first start. Missouri has an FCS team on deck and will be focused here.
PHIL'S FORECAST: MISSOURI 45 BG 17
|
