UF had a 3-0 TO edge and got a 78 yd PR TD from James to win 30-6 last year in Knoxville but the FD’s were even at 16 and UT had a 258-243 yd edge. Tennessee had 0 points on two trips inside the Gator 2 in the first half! The Gators are the best team in the country and this is their only game in the month of Sept that matters especially after UT’s new coach Kiffin made some disparaging comments about Meyer in the off season. QB Crompton has struggled under pressure and is averaging 163 yards per game (63%) with a 5-5 ratio (3 interceptions and a fumble lost last week). The best team in the country and this will be their “A” game for the month of  September. CLICK HERE FOR LAST 12 YEARS MATCHUPS.

PHIL'S FORECAST: FLORIDA 38 Tennessee 3

New UW HC Sarkisian was the Trojans’ OC the L2Y so he has great knowledge of the USC players and preparation. LY in the 1st gm after the announcement of Willingham’s termination, USC shutout UW 56-0 at the Coliseum as the Huskies failed to get past the Trojan 45. USC struggles in P10 road openers and is off their huge, last minute win in Columbus and true frosh QB Barkley (195 yds, 48%, 1-1 ratio vs OSU) is questionable (shoulder) and remember that USC lost at Oregon St as the week after Ohio St last year. The Trojan defense  has been dominant the L2Y as they have kept 7 of their last 10 opponents under 200. UW did well at home vs a Top 10 team in LSU when UW outgained them 478-321. CLICK HERE FOR LAST 12 YEARS MATCHUPS.

 PHIL’S FORECAST: Usc 34 WASHINGTON 21

First meeting. SE Louisiana is in just their 7^th year since restarting their program, but this will be their 11^th FBS opponent since ’05.  Last year the Lions lost to Miss St 34-10 and Louisiana Tech 41-26. They are led by QB Babin (PS#74), who is averaging 333 ypg (72%) with an 8-0 ratio in 2 games vs lower division teams. The Rebels will be facing their 5^th FCS opponent in the last 5 years and last year only defeated Samford 34-10 with their SEC opener on deck. Mississippi only led Memphis 17-7 after 3Q LY before QB Snead finally got his rhythm throwing 2 TD’s in a little over a minute in the 4Q. Ole Miss has a huge Thursday game vs South Carolina and so may rest some of their players late due to the short week. CLICK HERE FOR A COMPLETE HALF PAGE ON SE LOUISIANA.

PHIL’S FORECAST: MISSISSIPPI 52 SE Louisiana 3

FSU is making a rare trip into altitude coming from sea level and traveling almost 2,100 miles. They have just 5 starters back on D and only 3 scholarship Sr’s on offense. FSU had a short week LW and it showed as they barely got by Jacksonville St (trailed in 4Q). QB Ponder is averaging 309 ypg (61%) with a 2-1 ratio. This is BYU’s first home game and they already have 2 wins under their belts and have won 18 straight home games. BYU had a 245-164 yd edge 1H vs then-#3 Oklahoma when Bradford was healthy. QB Hall is averaging a solid 319 ypg (71%) with a 4-3 ratio. Their top RB Unga did not even play vs Oklahoma but is back in the lineup.

PHIL’S FORECAST: BYU 37 Florida St 20

ULL is coming off an emotional 17-15 win at home over Kansas St when Tyler Albrecht kicked his first college FG with 32 seconds left but the Cajuns were outgained 377-287 LW and had 3 turnovers. Two years ago ULM upset Alabama and LY Bama beat two SBC teams by a comb 76-7. I bring this up because LY LSU was lucky to get past Troy as they trailed 31-10 in the 3Q at home and most of their fans left and did not see the rally. After that close game they won’t take ULL lightly even in an SEC sandwich.

                  PHIL’S FORECAST LSU 41 LouisiANA 10

This is a HG for Toledo but Cleveland is Tressel’s hometown and 90% of the crowd should be in Scarlet and Gray. Toledo does have a great situation as they are off an impressive Friday night whipping of Colorado and catches OSU off of their last minute loss to USC with the B10 opener vs IL on deck. New UT HC Beckman was OSU’s DB coach in ‘05 and ‘06 and he has a veteran QB in Opelt who averaging 371 ypg (62%) with a 7-2 ratio. The Rockets’ D is T-#2 NCAA with 6 interceptions. OSU allowed true frosh QB Barkley to lead the Trojans 86/14pl scoring the gm winning TD with 1:05 left and also all’d Navy 2 late TD’s to nearly tie it up. The Bucks were outFD’d 18-10 and outgained 313-265 LW as OSU had just 90 yds after taking a 10-7 2Q lead. UT beat  Michigan in the Big House LY but Ohio St needs a good effort and Purdue beat Toledo by 21 this year. 

PHIL’S FORECAST: † Ohio St 47 Toledo 20 (Cleveland)

LY VT led 28-10 late 3Q before NU’s late comeback fell. That was a rare trip to the Midwest for VT and now the Huskers are on a rare trip to the East Coast and their Big Red faithful might have a tough time gobbling up tickets in Blacksburg. The Hokies have beaten the last 10 current non-conference BCS teams to visit by an average of 20 points per game. VT was outgained 498-155 in their first BCS game this year vs Bama. Nebraska QB Lee has passed for 553 total yards (74%) with a 6-1 ratio but is inexperienced, making his first road start in a very hostile environment while facing a solid defense. His stats were against a couple of Sun Belt defenses at home. Last year the situation greatly favored NU as VT had a young team making a rare trip to the Midwest and was off a couple of life and death 3 point conference wins. They dominated that game on the road and this year they are the more experienced team and at home and should get the win.

PHIL’S FORECAST: VIRGINIA TECH 27 Nebraska 20

First meeting. Texas St (formerly SW Texas St) comes in ranked #19 in the FCS  and is off a bye the week after beating Div II Angelo St 48-28. The Bobcats have faced 11 FBS teams since 2000, when they beat ULM 27-7. Last year they lost to SMU 47-36 and only lost to Baylor 34-27 in ’07.  The Bobcats are led by QB Bradley (PS#124), who threw for 328 yds (67%) with a 3-2 ratio in their opener. Last year the Horned Frogs despite having a home game vs Stanford on deck showed no mercy vs their FCS foes, destroying Stephen F Austin 67-7. They are off a big win over Virginia and do have a road trip vs Clemson on deck and so may be a little more lenient here. CLICK HERE FOR A COMPLETE HALF PAGE ON TEXAS ST.               

PHIL’S FORECAST: TCU 48 Texas St 6

Two years ago OSU traveled to Cincy on a Thurs Nite and had a 310-229 yd edge but were done in by 7 TO’s and got pounded 34-3 (legit revenge). Cincy QB Pike (296 yards per game, 77%, 6-1 ratio) appears to have things under control in ‘09 as the offense continues to chew up chunks of yardage including a 70-3 performance vs FCS SE Missouri last week as WR Gilyard became the 1st FBS player to score on a PR, rec and rush since ’05. OSU pulled out the last second win last week vs UNLV.  QB Canfield has been efficient in his 1st 2 games (79%, 3-0 ratio) which could keep QB Moevao off the field once he returns from injury. While both teams are young (10 and 9 ret starters), UC is making the odd trip to the Pacific NW (lost L/6 vs non-conference BCS teams by an avg of 21 ppg on the road) and probably won’t be prepared for the crowd volume of Reser Stadium. Oregon St usually struggles early in the year, especially their first road game but by the 2^nd home game of the season they have it figured out and have won that game by an average of 39-14 (last 4) including wins over USC and Boise St!                

PHIL’S FORECAST: OREGON ST 38 Cincinnati 34

1st meeting. KU has won their non-conf HG’s by an avg of 46-7. KU took care of UTEP on the road LW (576-208 yd edge) and they play much better in Lawrence. QB Reesing is avg 234 ypg (62%) with a 3-1 ratio. RB Sharpe has 227 yds (6.1). Duke did beat Army LW despite being outgained 385-236 (2 IR TD by Sr Wright). QB Lewis is avg 205 ypg (55%) with a 3-0 ratio but PS#16 Sean Renfree (7-8, 106 yds and 2-0 ratio) came off the bench for a spark. Duke  is 0-9 with an avg score of 44-10 vs ranked opponents.

          PHIL’S FORECAST: KANSAS 38 Duke 10

Last met in ‘07 as EC QB Pinkney threw for 406 yds and 3 TD in his 1st start as the Pirates won 34-31 in Butch Davis’ first loss here. NC does have a big ACC game at GT on deck. EC got a lot of recognition for their upsets of WV and VT LY so NC should be fully focused. Holtz already has pulled off  7 upsets on the road. Pinkney has struggled 2 weeks in a row and is avg just 153 ypg (42%) with a 2-3 ratio. Neither team has impressed me yet this year and NC trailed 10-0 last week until Connecticut’s QB was injured. Butch Davis is 0-3 against East Carolina including a couple of upset losses when he was the head man at Miami, FL. CLICK HERE FOR LAST 12 YEARS MATCHUPS.

PHIL’S FORECAST: N CAROLINA 20 E Carolina 13

This is one of the top revenge games of the year as in ‘08 TT WR Crabtree got a TD reception w/:01 left for Texas’s only loss of the year (costing them a Title shot). TT held the Horns to just 374 yards (only foe to hold UT under 400 yards) and although it took a last second TD to win, TT dominated most of the gm (TT led 22-6 at half w/a 326-108 yd edge). Texas has won 8 of 10 and is allowing just 240 ypg passing the last 5 (well below Tech avg). This is the first road trip for TT QB Potts (431 ypg, 67%, 9-3 ratio). TT is not as strong on the road as they are in Lubbock. UT QB McCoy is avg 327 ypg (67%) with a 5-2 ratio. The Horns running gm still hasn’t found a leader but McGee has 131 yards (5.0). Texas has almost everyone back from last year while the TT’s winning combo of Harrell to Crabtree is gone. CLICK HERE FOR LAST 12 YEARS MATCHUPS

PHIL’S FORECAST: TEXAS 44 Texas Tech 24

The Tide has beaten 3 SBC teams (WK, Ark St and FIU LW) by a comb 116-21 after losing to ULM in ‘07 (409-282 yd edge). UA was off a physical win over VT and started out slowly LW only leading 20-14 at the half, but held FIU to 95 yds in the 2H and only 1 rush yd in the gm. UA RB Ingram has 206 rush (5.7) and QB McElroy is avg 236 ypg (61%) with a 2-1 ratio. NT lost a heart-breaker in 2OT to Ohio LW 31-30 on a rain soaked field which resulted in 7 total TO’s. QB Dodge is doubtful for North Texas so the Tide should have no problem here.

PHIL’S FORECAST: ALABAMA 38 N Texas 10

Five members of the Temple staff including  HC Golden played under Paterno. PSU has faced Temple the L3Y winning by a combined 123-3. LY Temple lost their starting QB in the 1st series and PSU had a 338-32 yd edge at half. PSU does have a HUGE revenge game vs Iowa on deck while Temple is off a bye, but may want to stay healthy with a MAC matchup with Buffalo on deck. Penn St outgained Syracuse (318-200) and SU’s lone TD come on a 1 pl, 16 yd pass with 4:23 left after a fumble by Lions true frosh backup QB Newsome. The OL has failed to get a push for the 2nd game in a row (#94 NCAA 107 rush ypg, 3.3) vs the BE’s #7 DL and the MAC’s #2 DL (Temple is MAC’s #1 DL). The Owls have had 16 days to prep for this after their last second loss to the FCS’s #3 team, Villanova, in the opener in which they blew a 10 pt 4Q lead. QB Charlton threw for 317 yd vs the Cats but also tossed 3 int, including 1 which set up Nova’s gm winning FG. CLICK HERE FOR LAST 12 YEARS MATCHUPS

                 PHIL’S FORECAST: PENN ST 30 Temple 6

Minnesota in their 1st ever game at TCF Bank trailed AF 10-3 into the 4Q LW when LB Triplett got a 52 yd FR TD in the game’s key play. AF was also SOD on 4&1 at the UM9 in the 1H as the Gophers were outFD’d (24-14) and outrushed 261-108. UM switched offenses to beef up the run gm but is #91 in NCAA with 110 rush ypg (3.9) with QB Weber looking uncomfortable under C (234, 55%, 1-1 ratio). The Bears have outscored their opp 111-20 in their 2-0 start. QB Riley is #8 in NCAA pass eff (223, 65%, 5-0 ratio) while RB Best is #6 in NCAA with 280 yd (10.4!). Cal is 5-0 vs B10 with their avg win by 16. This game is being played at 9 am PT which slowed the Bears LY when they were upset at Maryland. This Cal team is different and handles the early start.

PHIL’S FORECAST: California 35 MINNESOTA 13

Last year Boise  only led 13-10 at the half but then exploded in the 2H in a 61-10  victory. Boise has lost just 2 WAC games since becoming a league member (‘01) and one was here in ‘05 (27-7), but they did win their last gm in Fresno in ‘07 by a 34-21. I picked Boise to be the BCS buster and this one is scary as Fresno will be sky high and could easily have beaten Wisconsin last week. CLICK HERE FOR LAST 12 YEARS MATCHUPS.

PHIL’S FORECAST: Boise St 30 FRESNO ST  23

PHIL’S FORECAST: MIAMI 31 GEORGIA TECH 20

OSU is taking a big step down in competition after facing Georgia and Houston and only have Grambling and a bye on deck. Rice is on the tail end of a 3 game road trip and lost most of their star players from LY’s 10-3 team. Bad spot for the Owls as the Cowboys need to get the bad taste out of their mouth and should roll here vs a Rice squad that  vs the last 5 ranked foes faced have allowed 51+ IN EVERY gm (avg score 54-10).

PHIL’S FORECAST: OKLAHOMA ST 51 Rice 6

Oregon has had a disappointing start to the season getting embarrassed at Boise St and getting outgained by 95 yds at home against Purdue. They did of course lose their star RB Blount for the season. They will be well motivated for the team that finished undefeated and #2 in the country LY. Utah has the nation’s longest winning streak at 16 games and is coming off a road win at San Jose St in which they were tied with the Spartans 7-7 going into the 4Q. Utah JC AA QB Cain was solid (248, 56%) LW but was assisted by a rush attack that gained 251 (6.3) and has yet to face a BCS defense.  Oregon is desperate and this one is a toss up so a mild call for the home team.

PHIL’S FORECAST: OREGON 24 Utah 21

UGA is 30-5 on opponents home fields under Richt. Arkansas is the fresher squad off an FCS foe and a bye and UGA battled #9 OSU on the road and just battled for a 41-37 win over SC in their home opener LW and travels again. Ark QB’s Mallett and Wilson set a school single gm record with 447 pass yds in their 48-10 win over Missouri St and Petrino used top RB Smith sparingly (4 carries, 43 yd) to keep him fresh for SEC action. UGA QB Cox is avg 182 ypg (59%) with a 3-2 ratio and RB Samuel has 152 (4.3). This game was the focus for Arkansas all August and September and I wonder how much Georgia has left in the tank with a big game for a 3^rd straight week. CLICK HERE FOR LAST 12 YEARS MATCHUPS.

PHIL’S FORECAST: ARKANSAS 27 Georgia 24

True frosh QB Tate Forcier avg 210 ypg (68%) with a 5-1 ratio, including a 31 yd TD run on 4&1 vs the Irish, which was the missing dimension in the Wolves’ offense LY. The Eagles QB Schmitt (166 ypg, 64%, 2-4 ratio) continues to struggle with the move away from the shotgun but RB Priest had 127 yd vs NW. EM’s HC English was UM’s DC under Carr (‘06-'07) and wasn’t retained when Rod was hired. EM has a bye on deck. Michigan has their Big 10 opener on deck but has the talent edge for an easy win and when Forcier comes out, exciting Denard Robinson comes in at QB and can add to the margin.

PHIL’S FORECAST: MICHIGAN 41 E Michigan 10